According to spot market data from SunSirs, the average market price for rapeseed meal stood at 2,542 RMB/ton on April 16, and 2,526 RMB/ton on April 23—marking a decline of 0.63%.

Supply Side: In the short term, rapeseed meal inventories in coastal regions remain low, and oil mills are operating at reduced capacity; consequently, the tight spot supply is providing price support. In the medium term, however, arrivals of Canadian rapeseed at ports are ample; once oil mill crushing operations resume, the supply situation is expected to shift from tight to loose. Furthermore, the domestic new-season rapeseed crop is about to enter its peak harvest period in May; market expectations regarding the anticipated increase in domestic supply are exerting further downward pressure on forward prices.

Demand Side: The aquaculture sector is currently in its off-season. Unstable temperatures in southern regions have resulted in a slower-than-expected start to stocking and feeding activities, leaving core demand for rapeseed meal sluggish; consequently, feed manufacturers are currently limiting their purchases primarily to meet immediate, essential needs.

Outlook: In the short term, prices are unlikely to experience a sharp decline, bolstered by low inventory levels. In the medium term, however, the market is expected to be dominated by a loosening supply environment, resulting in an overall trend of range-bound, slightly bearish price movements for rapeseed meal.

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