According to monitoring data from SunSirs, over the past week (April 15–21), the PA66 market exhibited a high-level volatile trend: after surging to a peak, prices experienced a slight pullback. On April 14, the SunSirs benchmark price for PA66 climbed to 25,100 RMB/ton—marking a one-year high. By April 21, the benchmark price stood at 24,100 RMB/ton; while this represented a correction from the April 14 figure, the price still posted a cumulative increase of 4.93% over a 10-day period, a 20.50% gain over 30 days, and a substantial 52.85% surge over 60 days, maintaining an overall trajectory of high-level operation.

Cost Side: Raw Material Prices Remain Elevated; Strong Cost Support Is the Core Driver

Raw material prices continue to hover at historically relative highs, serving as the primary driving force behind the current round of PA66 price increases.

Regarding Hexamethylenediamine (HMDA): Invista’s effective price for April has been raised to 26,000 RMB/ton—a significant increase compared to the beginning of the year. During the first quarter, the market price for bulk HMDA in East China surged from 16,300 RMB/ton in early January to 28,000 RMB/ton by the end of March—a cumulative increase of 11,700 RMB/ton, or 71.78%.

Regarding Adipic Acid: The cumulative increase in the first quarter exceeded 50%. Although the benchmark price for Adipic Acid saw a slight decline of 0.63% in mid-April compared to the start of the month, prices generally remain at historically relative high levels. In the East China region, Adipic Acid prices rose from 7,025 RMB/ton in early January to 10,800 RMB/ton by the end of March—a gain of 53.74%.

Despite a recent easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the energy-related price premiums established earlier have become deeply embedded within the industrial chain. Consequently, the central cost level is unlikely to shift downward in the short term, and manufacturing enterprises continue to face significant cost pressures.

Supply and Demand: Contracting Supply and Weak Demand Create a Stalemate

Tight supply conditions are providing support for prices. Recently, the volume of imported goods has declined, leading to tight circulation in the domestic spot market. Traders are exhibiting a strong reluctance to sell, and overall inventory levels—held by both manufacturers and traders—remain low. This contraction in supply is serving as a bolster for spot market prices.

Conversely, weak demand is capping upside potential. The downstream textile industry demonstrates low tolerance for current high price levels; consequently, market participants have generally adopted a strategy of placing only "small, essential orders" and purchasing strictly on an "as-needed" basis. Large-scale procurement orders remain scarce, and overall trading activity lacks vigor, resulting in a stalemate characterized by "supplier control versus demand-side resistance." Furthermore, some traders holding profitable positions have begun to offer price concessions in order to offload inventory, signaling a slight erosion of market confidence.

In the short term, the PA66 market is expected to continue fluctuating at elevated levels; the likelihood of any drastic, unidirectional surge or slump in prices appears low. On balance, the interplay between strong cost-side support and weak demand is set to persist. Consequently, future price trends will be highly contingent upon developments in raw material markets and the pace of recovery in downstream order volumes. Should there be no significant improvement in end-user demand, current high prices may stifle operating rates, thereby prolonging a market scenario characterized by "high prices but low transaction volume."

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