Amid expectations of a global decline in overall cotton production, the price levels for both domestic and international cotton have shifted upward. As of April 22, 2026, the benchmark Zhengzhou cotton futures contract closed higher for six consecutive trading days; the active 2609 contract firmly breached the 16,000 RMB/ton psychological barrier, closing at 16,230 RMB/ton—a new two-year high.
The market trend continues to strengthen, driven by a clear underlying logic:
1. Domestic spring cotton sowing has proceeded smoothly overall, and expectations regarding a reduction in the new season's cotton planting acreage are set to be gradually validated.
2. Dry weather and insufficient rainfall in the core U.S. cotton-producing regions pose risks to the sowing and growth of the new cotton crop. As expectations of reduced yields intensify, U.S. cotton futures—the international benchmark—have broken through the 80-cent mark, hitting a two-year high and driving domestic cotton prices upward in tandem.
3. Textile enterprises are increasing their inventory restocking to meet essential demand; orders for grey fabric and cotton yarn have shown marginal improvement, and downstream and midstream sectors have demonstrated heightened enthusiasm for purchasing, thereby supporting a rise in the floor price of cotton.
According to the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, as of April 22, the spot price of Grade 3128B lint cotton stood at 17,409 RMB/ton, representing an increase of 3.61% compared to the beginning of the month.
Overall, global cotton production is projected to decline in the coming year, marking the onset of a destocking cycle; consequently, cotton prices are expected to find support over the medium to long term. Moving forward, key factors to monitor include weather conditions in the primary production region of Xinjiang and the status of downstream orders.
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