In 2025, China's grain output reached 715 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, and it has been stable at more than 700 million tons for two consecutive years. The total grain imports for the year were 140 million tons, a decrease of 10.8% year-on-year. Grain supply was sufficient, and prices were stable with a slight increase. Wheat production was slightly reduced, and many provinces activated the minimum purchase price plan, leading to price fluctuations and a rebound. Rice production increased slightly, imports declined, and it still maintained a pattern of production exceeding demand, with prices remaining stable overall. Corn production set another historical high, but the import volume decreased significantly, and prices rebounded from a low level. Domestic soybean production has remained above 20 million tons for the fourth consecutive year, with increased crushing demand, and prices rebounded from a low point. Global soybean supply was sufficient, and domestic demand was strong, with soybean import volume setting another historical high, reaching 112 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%, accounting for 79.6% of grain imports.
1. China's wheat production in 2025
Slight reduction in the even, a small increase in the price
From the supply side, in 2025, all localities resolutely implemented the same responsibility for grain security, strictly protected cultivated land and controlled its use, promoted the construction of high-standard farmland with high quality, increased the efforts to restore and reclaim abandoned farmland, and further tapped planting potential. The weather during the growth period of wheat was generally good, which was conducive to the formation of yield. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the wheat planting area in 2025 was 23.55 million hectares, a decrease of 0.5 million hectares compared to the previous year; the yield was 140.07 million tons, a slight decrease compared to the previous year. In 2025, China imported 3.98 million tons of wheat, a decrease of 64.4% compared to the previous year, mainly due to the narrowing of the price difference between domestic and foreign markets, which suppressed the demand for imports.
From the consumption side, with the development of the economy, income growth, and the continuous improvement of the urbanization rate, residents' food consumption shows a trend of structural upgrading, coupled with the decrease in population and the intensification of aging, the per capita consumption of staple food is on a downward trend. It is estimated that the domestic wheat flour consumption in 2025 will be 89 million tons, a decrease of 15 million tons from the previous year. The price difference between wheat and corn has narrowed, and the number of wheat entering the feed sector has increased. It is estimated that the domestic wheat consumption for feed, seed, and industrial use in 2025 will be 42.7 million tons, an increase of 3.7 million tons from the previous year. The total domestic wheat consumption is 131.7 million tons, an increase of 22 million tons from the previous year, an increase of 1.7%.
In terms of price, the ex-factory price of ordinary wheat in the main producing areas of North China and the Yellow Huai region fell to 2,330-2,370 yuan/ton at the beginning of 2025, which was at a low level for many years. Before the new wheat was put on the market, some producing areas were affected by adverse weather conditions such as drought, and the price fluctuated and rose. After the new grain was put on the market, the weather did not have a significant impact on the yield, the yield was expected to be good, and the price fell slightly. Due to the fact that China has successively launched the minimum purchase price execution plan in the five major producing provinces, the market expectations were effectively stabilized, and combined with the fact that feed enterprises concentrated on purchasing wheat to replace corn from June to September, the wheat price stopped falling and stabilized. After October, the market wheat stock declined, and the price rebounded again. On December 31, the price of ordinary wheat in the main producing areas was 2,450-2,510 yuan/ton, an increase of 80-140 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the year.
2. Supply of rice in China in 2025
Adequate, prices overall remain stable
From the supply side, in 2025, China will continue to implement the minimum purchase price policy in the main production areas of rice, raising the minimum purchase price for early rice to 1.28 RMB per 500g, while stabilizing the minimum purchase price for medium and late rice and japonica rice at 1.29 RMB per 500g and 1.31 RMB per 500g, respectively, which has effectively supported the price bottom and guaranteed the farmers' enthusiasm for growing rice. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that in 2025, China's rice output was 209.04 million tons, an increase of 15 million tons year-on-year, a rise of 0.7%. In 2025, China's rice and milled rice imports totaled 3.14 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 89.6%. The main reasons are the宽松 supply and demand of international rice, the continuous decline in price, the obvious price advantage of imported rice, and the need for variety adjustment.
From the perspective of consumption, the consumption of rice continues to show a downward trend. On the one hand, the nutritional structure of urban and rural residents continues to be optimized, the trend of diversified consumption of staple food is obvious, and the substitutes of rice are becoming increasingly rich. On the other hand, the investment in real estate infrastructure and the newly started construction area decreased year-on-year, and the number of high-intensity labor force decreased. It is estimated that the domestic consumption of rice for food in 2025 will be 155.5 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons year-on-year; the consumption of rice for feed will increase slightly, and the consumption of rice for feed, seed and industry will be 36.42 million tons, an increase of 2.21 million tons year-on-year. The total consumption of rice in the country is 191.92 million tons, an increase of 12.1 million tons year-on-year, an increase of 0.6%.
From the perspective of price, the overall price of rice in China will remain stable in 2025. Before the new rice is launched, the price will go down due to the domestic enterprises' clearance of the warehouse and the increase of imports. After the new rice is launched, the price will remain stable. On December 31, the price of early rice in the main producing areas is 2580-2770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200-250 yuan/ton compared to the same period last year. The middle and late rice has a poor quality due to unfavorable weather, the price has declined slightly, and many provinces have started the minimum purchase price plan, which has supported the price. At the end of the year, the purchase price of middle and late rice is 2580-2640 yuan/ton, which is basically the same as last year. The climate during the growth period of the Northeast japonica rice is continuously beneficial, the quality is better than last year, and the price has recovered. However, the japonica rice in Jiangsu has declined in quality and price due to the rainy weather.
3, Corn production in China in 2025
Innovation high, price low rebound
From the supply side, the price of corn planting rebounded in 2025, the expected benefits improved, and the planting area increased for the third consecutive year with the guidance of policy propaganda. The corn harvesting period in North China encountered continuous rainy weather, which affected the quality. The weather during the corn harvesting period in Northeast China was mainly sunny, and the yield increased with good quality. In 2025, the national corn production was 301.24 million tons, an increase of 6.32 million tons compared to the previous year, setting a new historical high. In 2025, China imported 2.65 million tons of corn, a decrease of 80.6% compared to the previous year. The domestic feed grain supply was sufficient at this stage, which led to a significant decrease in the import volume.
From the perspective of consumption, the consumption of feed continues to increase, driving the demand for corn for feed. Data from the China Animal Feed Industry Association shows that in 2025, the total production of industrial feed in China was 342.25 million tons, an increase of 8.6% year-on-year. Data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs shows that by the end of 2025, the domestic pig inventory was 429.67 million heads, an increase of 22.4 million heads year-on-year. The pig inventory has been at a high level for a long time, driving the demand for feed. It is estimated that the feed consumption of corn in 2025 will be 198 million tons, an increase of 12 million tons year-on-year. Corn industrial consumption remains stable, at 78 million tons in 2025, the same as the previous year. The total consumption of corn in China was 296.25 million tons, an increase of 12.12 million tons year-on-year, an increase of 4.3%.
From the perspective of price, the corn price in China rebounded from the low point in 2025. Against the backdrop of policy support for the purchase and storage and a reduction in imports, the corn price continued to rise after March 2025. In July, the corn price fell again due to the impact of policy-oriented auctions and wheat substitution. In October, a large amount of new corn was harvested and brought to the market, and the supply of damp corn was sufficient. Enterprises adjusted their purchase prices accordingly, and the market price opened high and closed low. In November, the supply of damp corn in Northeast China basically ended, and the corn price rebounded and rose. On December 31, the purchase price of deep processing enterprises in North China was 2200-2310 yuan/ton, an increase of 200-300 yuan/ton compared to the same period last year.
4, soybean production in 2025 created
New high, price bottomed out and rebounded
From the supply side, the national relevant departments continued to consolidate the achievements of soybean planting expansion in 2025, and the planting area increased slightly compared to the previous year due to the better planting income of soybeans than corn in the Northeast region. Since the planting period, the overall weather in the Northeast production area has been good, leading to an increase in soybean yield and production; however, the planting area in the North China and the Yellow-Huaihai regions decreased, and adverse weather occurred during the growth period and harvest period, resulting in damaged soybean quality and reduced production. The national production has been increasing. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in 2025, China's soybean production reached 20.91 million tons, setting a new historical high, and it has exceeded 20 million tons for four consecutive years; soybean imports reached 112 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%, also setting a new historical high.
From the perspective of consumption, China's soybean consumption is mainly divided into two categories: food and oil extraction, among which oil extraction consumption is mainly imported soybeans, and food consumption is mainly domestic soybeans. In 2025, the demand for feed consumption increased significantly, coupled with the low price of soybean meal, the proportion of soybean meal added in feed formulations was increased, which drove the demand for consumption. In addition, the domestic consumption of soybean oil as a substitute increased, and the demand for soybean oil and soybean meal was good, which also stimulated the increase in soybean crushing. It is estimated that the soybean crushing volume in 2025 will exceed 100 million tons for the first time, reaching 103 million tons. Among them, the domestic soybean price is at a multi-year low, the oil factory crushing profit has improved, and the crushing volume is also higher than the previous year. The domestic soybean food consumption is stable and increasing, and it is estimated that the food consumption volume in 2025 will be 16.9 million tons, an increase of 1.5 million tons year-on-year.
From the price perspective, the domestic soybean price bottomed out and rebounded in 2025. From January to March, the domestic soybean meal supply was tight, prices increased, domestic soybean crushing profits were good, which drove consumption and prices continued to rebound. Then, with the adjustment of the Sino-US tariff policy, the market expected that the domestic soybean supply would be tight in the fourth quarter without purchasing US soybeans, which also supported the domestic soybean price, and the price fluctuated narrowly in the long term. After the new soybeans came to the market, all kinds of market entities actively entered the market to purchase, and the price continued to rebound. On December 31, the purchase price of the new season 39% protein soybeans in Heilongjiang was 3920-4060 yuan/ton, an increase of 180-280 yuan/ton compared with the starting price in mid-September, and an increase of 160-200 yuan/ton compared with the same period last year; the price of high-quality high-protein soybeans maintained a slight upward trend, and the feature of high-quality and high-price was obvious.
5. Outlook for China's Grain Market in 2026
(1) Food supply is sufficient, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range.
2026 is the first year of the "15th Five-Year Plan". The Central Economic Work Conference and the Central Rural Work Conference both emphasized that "we must not relax our efforts to ensure grain production" and "promote the prices of grain and other important agricultural products to remain at a reasonable level". At all levels, governments will actively ensure grain production. The minimum purchase price for wheat and rice in 2026 will remain at the level of the previous year, continuing to play a safety net role, which is conducive to ensuring farmers' benefits and improving planting enthusiasm. Affected by abnormal weather, the sowing of winter wheat in the main producing areas in 2025 was generally delayed, and the wheat seedlings were weak, which makes the production of summer grain wheat in 2026 uncertain. However, the domestic wheat stock is sufficient and does not affect the market supply. It is expected that the wheat price will continue to operate in a narrow range of "top and bottom" in 2026. Rice is still in a pattern of production exceeding demand. If no major disaster occurs, the production will remain above 200 million tons. Even if rice imports decline, the supply will still remain sufficient. The minimum purchase price policy has a strong support for the price and continues to maintain the range of fluctuations.
(2) Diversification of feed grain substitutes, with domestic supply guaranteed
Corn planting area is expected to increase in 2026. The new season corn price in 2025 was higher than the same period last year, and the single yield increased, planting costs further decreased, and the planting income increased year-on-year and was higher than soybeans. It is expected that the planting area will continue to increase in 2026, laying a foundation for a bumper corn harvest. Corn imports are subject to quotas and are difficult to increase significantly, and the supply of feed grains is mainly domestic. The current domestic stock of breeding sows is at a high level, and it is expected that the feed demand in 2026 will not be too bad. Sorghum, barley, imported corn, domestic wheat, rice, etc., are important factors affecting the corn price. Soybean planting area is expected to decline, and the supply reduction is mainly in the crushing consumption part, and the edible consumption is guaranteed. The price trend of domestic and imported soybeans may diverge, the global soybean supply is sufficient, the import volume remains at a high level, and the impact on the crushing market is expected. The price of high-quality domestic soybeans may continue to maintain a high level.
(3) Grain imports remain at a high level, and the structure may undergo adjustments.
In 2025, China imported 140.56 million tons of grain, a decrease of 10.8% compared to the previous year. Among them, corn, wheat, barley, and sorghum decreased, while rice and soybeans increased. The import of edible vegetable oil was 6.94 million tons, a decrease of 3.2% compared to the previous year. It is expected that the grain import volume will still maintain a high level in 2026. First, the import of feed grain will be maintained within the quota. Domestic corn has once again achieved a bumper harvest, and the price is still at a low level for many years. The pressure of policy-oriented imported corn is large, and the domestic supply is generally sufficient. Under the protection of policies such as import quotas, it is difficult for the import volume of corn to increase significantly. However, the import of substitutes such as sorghum and barley may increase slightly due to factors such as price differences, but the increase is limited. Second, the import volume of soybeans will maintain a high level. According to the new trade agreement reached between China and the United States, China imported 12 million tons of American soybeans in the 2025th year, and then imported 25 million tons per year for the next three years, indicating that the import volume from the United States will double in 2026, and the soybean production in South America is expected to maintain a high yield, and the global soybean surplus will flow to China. The number of breeding sows in China is at a high level, and the price of soybean meal is at a low level for many years, which is conducive to feed enterprises to increase the addition ratio of soybean meal, and to drive consumer demand. It is expected that the import volume of soybeans will continue to maintain a high level.
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