Price Trend

According to statistics from SunSirs, seamless tube prices edged up slightly last week. As of the end of the week, the price for 20# (108*4.5) seamless tube was quoted at 4,094 RMB/ton—an increase of 0.24% from the beginning of the week, but a year-on-year decline of 0.33%.

Market analysis

Last week, prices in the tube billet market remained largely stable; currently, the ex-works quoted price for 20# hot-rolled tube billets stands at 3,290–3,410 RMB/ton. Inventories at tube billet mills remain persistently low, fostering a strong sentiment among producers to hold firm on prices and be reluctant to sell. Coupled with the volatile yet upward-trending prices of raw materials—iron ore and coke—cost-side support remains robust, severely limiting any potential downside for prices.

Seamless tube manufacturers are maintaining a measured pace in their procurement activities, focusing primarily on demand-driven purchasing and restocking to meet immediate operational needs; there is no evidence of large-scale, centralized buying. Consequently, supply and demand remain in a state of delicate equilibrium, and the overall trading atmosphere remains steady. Pricing in major regions across the country remains largely stable; however, core markets such as East and North China have seen tentative upward adjustments of 10–20 RMB/ton, as the availability of lower-priced inventory continues to tighten. Downstream demand—anticipated during the traditional "Silver April" season—has been slow to materialize; purchasing remains focused on immediate necessities, and significant concentrated trading volume has yet to emerge. As a result, the market continues to operate within a framework of delicate supply-demand equilibrium and firm pricing at elevated levels.

Market outlook

Overall, the high-level volatility in the futures market provides strong support for seamless steel tubes, limiting their downside potential. However, downstream demand during the "Silver April" season has failed to meet expectations; while trading activity has shown signs of recovery, overall transaction volumes remain below forecasts. Raw materials—such as tube billets, iron ore, and coke—continue to trade at elevated levels, thereby establishing a firm cost floor. Consequently, the short-term market is expected to maintain a pattern of overall stability, with only minor regional adjustments.

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