Price trend
According to data from the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, the domestic toluene market exhibited a continuous downward trend from April 13 to April 20, 2026, with prices in the Shandong region experiencing a significant decline. Toluene market prices in the Shandong region fell from 7,417.67 RMB/ton to 6,727.67 RMB/ton—a drop of 9.3% over the period. This downturn was primarily driven by a confluence of factors: fluctuating and weakening crude oil costs, relatively ample supply, and sluggish downstream purchasing demand. These combined pressures weighed on market sentiment, resulting in a generally subdued trading atmosphere and a cautious mindset among industry participants.
Fundamental Analysis
Cost Perspective: Last week, international crude oil prices initially declined before rebounding; however, the overall price center shifted lower, resulting in continuously weakening cost support for toluene. Throughout the week, fluctuating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East triggered significant volatility in crude oil futures. Although prices staged brief intraday rallies following earlier sharp declines, these failed to generate any sustained bullish momentum. The retreat of crude oil prices from their highs directly eroded cost support for toluene production; furthermore, heightened market anxiety regarding the future trajectory of crude oil prices hindered the effective transmission of cost-side support. Concurrently, the price spread between pure benzene and toluene remained wide, and the arbitrage window between PX and xylenes opened up. While this provided some degree of support for toluene, its impact was limited and insufficient to offset the bearish pressure stemming from the weakening crude oil market. As of the settlement on April 17, the June contract for U.S. WTI crude oil futures closed at $82.59 per barrel, while the June contract for Brent crude oil futures settled at $90.38 per barrel.
Supply Side: Domestic toluene market supply remains ample; major state-owned refineries and independent refineries in Shandong are actively shipping products, ensuring abundant market availability. This week, toluene units at major domestic refineries—including Sinopec and PetroChina—continued to operate steadily. Posted prices were adjusted downward in line with market trends, while refineries in South China—such as Guangzhou Petrochemical, Maoming Petrochemical, and Zhongke Refining & Chemical—maintained a steady release of products for external sale. In the Shandong region, independent refineries continued to operate at high utilization rates; however, driven by a sustained decline in market prices, these refineries demonstrated an increased urgency to move inventory, actively lowering prices to boost sales volume. Although the second quarter typically marks the industry's traditional maintenance season—with companies such as Jinling Petrochemical and Taizhou Petrochemical having scheduled maintenance plans—no large-scale maintenance shutdowns actually materialized this week; consequently, overall domestic toluene production capacity remained fully utilized. Furthermore, with inventory levels at East China ports remaining at reasonable levels and market circulation supplies abundant, the supply side is exerting significant downward pressure on prices.
Demand Side: Downstream industries’ purchasing demand for toluene remains persistently sluggish, with insufficient impetus from essential requirements. Throughout the week, operating rates in downstream sectors—such as TDI, coatings, and solvents—remained at low levels. With consumption in the end market remaining weak, downstream manufacturers largely adhered to a strategy of purchasing strictly on an as-needed basis and maintaining low inventory levels, exhibiting clear resistance to high toluene prices. Even as market prices underwent consecutive and substantial downward adjustments, the pace of downstream restocking remained slow. Market transactions consisted predominantly of small-volume purchases driven by immediate necessities, while large-volume deals were scarce; consequently, the demand side has struggled to provide effective support to the toluene market.
According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, domestic PX quotations remained stable from April 13 to April 20. Sinopec Sales Company maintained a steady ex-factory price for PX at 9,600 RMB per ton, a rate uniformly implemented across the East China, North China, Central China, and South China regions. Major production facilities—such as those at Yangzi Petrochemical and Zhenhai Petrochemical—operated smoothly, and the overall pace of shipments remained normal. Concurrently, Asian PX external market prices trended downward; on April 10, the average FOB Korea price for Asian PX stood at approximately $1,144 per ton, while the average CFR China price was around $1,169 per ton. By April 16, the average FOB Korea price had retreated to $1,213 per ton, and the average CFR China price had fallen to $1,238 per ton. While external market prices experienced a slight overall decline, the trend in domestic prices proved notably stronger than that of the external market.
Market Outlook
Overall, the silicomanganese market has transitioned from a phase of panic-driven decline to a stage of volatile bottom-building. While support at the market bottom is gradually strengthening, further upward movement remains contingent upon updates to key market indicators. SunSirs anticipates that the silicomanganese market will likely maintain its volatile trajectory in the short term; subsequently, bolstered by cost support and supportive policies, it is expected to trend stronger.
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