Price trend

According to nickel price monitoring by SunSirs, nickel prices rose sharply last week. As of the end of the week, the spot nickel quotation stood at 144,000 RMB/ton—an increase of 6.65% from the beginning of the week and 12.86% year-on-year.

According to the weekly price fluctuation chart from SunSirs, over the past 12 weeks, nickel prices declined in six weeks and rose in five, with a strong rebound observed recently.

Market analysis

On the macro front: The global macro environment remains generally favorable, though underlying concerns persist. The U.S. Dollar Index extended its losing streak to eight consecutive sessions, currently hovering around the 98 mark—marking its longest continuous decline since June 2020. Meanwhile, positive progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations has led to a significant cooling of market risk aversion. U.S. equities continued their strong performance, with the Nasdaq Composite recording its eleventh consecutive gain and hitting a new all-time high, while the S&P 500 Index breached the 7,000-point psychological barrier for the first time. Domestically, the Q1 GDP growth data released today met market expectations, providing a certain degree of boost to market confidence; however, the improvement in downstream demand remains limited and has failed to generate a strong price-driving impetus.

Supply Side: In March, China's output of refined nickel totaled 37,337 tons, representing a month-on-month increase of 14.53% and a year-on-year increase of 1.83%. For April, China's estimated refined nickel output stands at 38,830 tons—up 4.00% month-on-month and 6.53% year-on-year. The supply side faces significant upward pressure on costs, with tightening policies in Indonesia emerging as the primary variable. The country has successively introduced a series of industrial regulatory measures, systematically driving up the global nickel industry's cost curve; concurrently, sharp price increases for key upstream raw materials—coupled with persistently tight supplies of intermediate products—have further elevated production costs within the smelting sector.

Regarding Demand: Overall demand remains sluggish; only improved profitability within the stainless steel sector offers a relatively stable source of support. While the production and sales of new energy vehicles remain steady, growth in demand for ternary batteries has lost momentum, and the industry is currently in its traditional off-season. Downstream enterprises generally maintain a cautious procurement stance, focusing primarily on restocking to meet immediate operational needs; meanwhile, the prevailing high-inventory environment continues to suppress any potential for price appreciation.

Market Outlook

In summary, the nickel market is characterized by the coexistence of tight upstream intermediate supplies and sluggish downstream demand; this severe imbalance in profit distribution across the industrial chain has significantly constrained the price's volatility and elasticity. Amidst fluctuating macroeconomic conditions—and with the implementation of new policies in Indonesia providing stronger underlying support for nickel ore prices—actual supply pressures, compounded by insufficient inventory drawdown, are expected to drive nickel prices to trade primarily within a range characterized by an upward bias.

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