Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the spot market for PTA in the East China region exhibited a slight upward trend last week (April 13–17); the average market price at the beginning of the week stood at 6,597 RMB/ton, representing an increase of 4.12% compared to the start of the week.
Market analysis
As U.S.-Iran negotiations advance, the geopolitical risk premium is expected to gradually diminish; consequently, the cost inputs for crude oil and PX may experience high-level volatility followed by a downward correction. As of April 16, the settlement price for the May contract of U.S. WTI crude oil futures stood at $94.69 per barrel, while the settlement price for the June contract of Brent crude oil futures was $99.39 per barrel.
On the demand side, the textile industry is currently in its traditional off-season, and end-market export orders remain insufficient. Consequently, loom operating rates in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions stand at only 60–70%. Although the polyester sector maintains an operating rate of 80%, finished product inventories are accumulating; as a result, enterprises are limiting their procurement of PTA primarily to meet immediate, essential needs. The ability to pass on the cost of high-priced raw materials to downstream sectors is hindered, and this weak demand is acting as a drag on market price appreciation.
Market outlook
Analysts at SunSirs believe that, in the short term, domestic PTA supply is expected to remain constrained. The downstream polyester sector shows little change, with purchasing activity driven primarily by immediate, essential needs; consequently, the rate of depletion in social inventories has accelerated. Furthermore, given the numerous uncertainties surrounding the situation in the Middle East, raw material supplies remain tight, and cost-side support for prices remains intact.
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