Price Trend

According to the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, domestic prices for light rare earths have recently trended upward. On April 16, the SunSirs Rare Earth Index stood at 685 points—an increase of 18 points from April 11. This figure represents a 31.98% decline from the cycle's historical high of 1,007 points (recorded on February 24, 2022), yet marks a 152.77% increase from the cycle's historical low of 271 points (recorded on September 13, 2015). (Note: The defined cycle spans from December 1, 2011, to the present.)

Fundamental Analysis

Domestic prices for neodymium oxide, neodymium metal, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium metal, Pr-Nd alloy, and Pr-Nd oxide have all trended upward. As of the 17th, the price of neodymium oxide stood at 845,000 RMB/ton—a 3.68% increase from the previous week; neodymium metal was priced at 1.05 million RMB/ton, up 5.0% week-on-week; praseodymium oxide was 835,000 RMB/ton, rising 4.05% from the previous week; praseodymium metal reached 1.045 million RMB/ton, marking a 6.63% increase over the past week; Pr-Nd alloy was priced at 985,000 RMB/ton, up 5.35% week-on-week; and Pr-Nd oxide stood at 812,500 RMB/ton, reflecting a 2.20% increase this week.

Recently, prices in the domestic light rare earth market have trended upward; prices for core products have risen consecutively, and market sentiment has rapidly intensified. This surge is fundamentally driven by the confluence of four major factors: a skyrocketing in concentrate costs triggering price adjustments across the entire supply chain, the depletion of spot inventories, a concentrated wave of restocking driven by immediate demand, and tightening supply expectations.

1. Direct Factor: Significant increase in concentrate prices

Baogang Group and Northern Rare Earth have raised their concentrate prices for the second quarter to 38,804 RMB/ton—a sequential increase of 11,970 RMB/ton—marking the seventh consecutive quarter of price hikes. This represents the largest single-quarter increase since the pricing mechanism reform; by shattering expectations of a "gradual rise," it has prompted traders and separation plants to collectively withhold inventory, leading to a sharp contraction in spot market circulation and driving up prices in the light rare earth market.

2. Spot Market: Inventories have bottomed out, leaving no stock available for sale

Inventories across the entire industry chain are at historic lows—well below the 3–4 month safety threshold—and low-priced spot supplies have all but vanished. With orders for new energy vehicles and wind power equipment picking up, magnet manufacturers have engaged in concentrated restocking following their resumption of operations; this trend, compounded by panic-buying overseas (specifically in Europe and the U.S.), has created a severe supply shortage—making it nearly impossible to secure goods—and has driven up prices in the rare earth market.

3. Supply Side: Rigidly Locked Down, Tighter Conditions Expected

Domestic quotas are under strict control; the 2026 mining quota stands at 285,000 tons, with the growth rate for light rare earths capped at under 6%—the lowest level in recent years—rendering supply completely inelastic. Furthermore, imports from Myanmar have plummeted, with arrivals at ports dropping by over 40% month-on-month. As substitutes and supplementary sources for medium-to-heavy rare earths remain insufficient, the supply deficit for light rare earths has widened, driving up domestic market prices for light rare earths.

• Demand Side: Concentrated Release of Essential Demand in the New Energy Sector

With rising sales of new energy vehicles and a permanent magnet motor penetration rate exceeding 95%, there has been a concentrated surge in essential demand for inventory replenishment. Global new installed capacity has increased by 40%; meanwhile, large-megawatt offshore wind turbines are entering mass production, with orders currently booked through the second half of the year. Recently, manufacturers in Europe and the U.S. have ramped up inventory stocking due to heightened supply chain uncertainties, leading to a widening price spread between domestic and international markets and a consequent surge in export orders.

Market Outlook:

In the short term, the rare earth market is characterized by an upward bias—being more prone to rising than falling—and is expected to largely maintain its current high price levels. As demand gradually recovers across downstream sectors—such as new energy vehicles, wind power installations, and industrial motors—and is further bolstered by continuously tightening industry regulations, persistent expectations of strategic stockpiling, and a resurgence in demand from overseas high-end manufacturing, the supply-demand balance for rare earths is poised to tighten once again. Furthermore, given that rare earths serve as a core raw material for high-tech industries, and against the broader backdrop of carbon neutrality initiatives and the upgrading of high-end manufacturing capabilities, the fundamental logic driving long-term demand growth remains unchanged; consequently, rare earth prices are expected to exhibit a sustained upward trend over the long term.

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