In mid-April, the domestic coke market exhibited a range-bound, stable-to-firm trend, influenced by multiple factors including weakening raw material prices, support from steel mills’ essential demand, and diverging inventory structures across the supply chain. Market focus centered on fluctuations in coking coal costs, the sustainability of pig iron demand, and the implementation of price hikes by coking plants, with the tug-of-war between upstream and downstream players in the industry chain intensifying significantly.

I. Price Trends of Core Products

On April 15, the SunSirs coke benchmark price stood at 1,436.25 RMB/ton, up 3.23% from April 1 and 12.16% from March 1.

As a key raw material, the SunSirs benchmark price for coking coal on April 15 was 1,483.75 RMB/ton, down 1.98% from April 1 but up 15.23% from March 1. The benchmark price for downstream steel billets on April 15 was 3,030.00 RMB/ton, a slight decrease of 0.66% from April 1 and an increase of 4.84% from March 1. Overall, coke prices continued to show relative strength, but upstream coking coal has already shown signs of a correction, while downstream steel prices remained relatively stable, indicating a divergence in the drivers of coke prices from the cost and demand sides.

II. Logic of Price Transmission Between Upstream and Downstream Sectors

On the cost side, coking coal, as the primary raw material for coke, has a significant impact on prices. Entering April, customs clearance volumes for imported coal remained high, and production at domestic coal mines in major producing regions gradually resumed. Overall market supply became more abundant. Coupled with the fact that coking enterprises primarily procure on an as-needed basis, coking coal prices have fallen slightly from their highs, significantly weakening the cost support for coke compared to earlier periods. However, as coking coal prices remain at high levels year-on-year, they still provide a certain degree of bottom support for coke, and cost pressures on coking enterprises have not been fully alleviated.

On the supply side, a pattern of profit recovery and a steady rise in operating rates has emerged. With the earlier increase in coke prices, coupled with the decline in coking coal prices, coking enterprises’ profit margins have improved, and industry operating rates have gradually increased. Although some regions are still undergoing periodic maintenance, overall production has increased, and market supply remains relatively ample. At the same time, coking plants’ inventories remain generally low, shipments are smooth, and companies are strongly committed to maintaining prices. Some regions are considering a new round of price hikes, providing some support for prices from the supply side.

On the demand side, steel mills’ essential demand remains the primary driver, with pig iron output maintaining relatively high levels, providing stable support for coke prices. Although recent fluctuations in the steel market have been limited, demand from infrastructure projects and certain manufacturing sectors is steadily increasing. Steel mills maintain high production enthusiasm, with pig iron output remaining at relatively high levels for the year, sustaining firm demand for coke procurement. However, steel mills’ overall raw material inventories remain high, limiting their willingness to accept coke price hikes. Most mills adopt a “buy as needed” strategy, making it difficult for concentrated restocking to drive significant price increases.

III. Imports, Exports, and Overall Market Landscape

Since the beginning of 2026, coke imports and exports have remained generally stable. Domestic coke supply is primarily self-sufficient, with limited import volumes having a minimal impact on the domestic market. On the export side, influenced by relevant trade policies, both volume and prices have remained stable without significant fluctuations, and the pull effect of international market demand on domestic prices has been limited.

The current coke market exhibits a clear dynamic of negotiation between upstream and downstream players. Upstream coking enterprises are actively pushing for price increases, driven by low inventories and the need to restore profits, while downstream steel mills are controlling procurement costs by leveraging high inventories and stable demand. Market forces are relatively balanced. Profit distribution across the industry chain is undergoing adjustment: profitability in the coking sector has improved, while steel mill profits fluctuate due to raw material prices, and cost pressures persist for downstream product manufacturers.

IV. Market Outlook

In the short term, the coke market is expected to continue trading within a range. Weak coking coal prices will limit the upside potential for coke, while stable demand from steel mills and low inventories at coking plants provide support. Conditions for significant price increases or decreases are currently insufficient.

Overall, the coking coal market is currently in a phase of balance, characterized by weakening cost support and persistent demand resilience. Future trends will depend largely on the pace of recovery in downstream demand and the direction of coking coal price movements.

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