Price trend

According to data from the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, from April 1 to April 15, 2026, domestic 1.3-butadiene market prices declined from 18,333.33 RMB/ton to 16,133.33 RMB/ton, representing a cumulative drop of 12%. During the first half of April, the domestic 1.3-butadiene market faced downward pressure; the overall trading atmosphere remained subdued, and the market's pricing center continued to retreat. The gradual weakening of cost support and the lack of momentum in downstream demand emerged as the primary factors driving market trends. Even though overall spot supply remained relatively tight, it proved insufficient to offset the downward pressure resulting from weak demand. Consequently, the industry as a whole exhibited a dynamic characterized by a tug-of-war between strong supply and weak demand, leading to a phase of price correction and adjustment.

Market analysis

Cost Perspective: During the first half of April, upstream cost support for 1.3-butadiene showed significant signs of weakening. As a byproduct of naphtha cracking for ethylene production, 1.3-butadiene prices are closely correlated with the trends in crude oil and naphtha markets. At the beginning of the month, influenced by recent geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, crude oil prices remained elevated; this drove naphtha costs to persistently high levels, thereby providing a strong cost floor for 1.3-butadiene prices. However, as tensions in the Middle East eased and market expectations regarding tight crude oil supplies gradually cooled, international crude oil prices trended downward amidst market volatility, causing the cost of cracking feedstocks to retreat accordingly. Concurrently, as feedstock shortages eased, operating rates at ethylene cracking plants across Asia were gradually adjusted upward, leading to a corresponding decline in the cost of 1.3-butadiene—a cracking byproduct. Furthermore, the price premium in the 1.3-butadiene market—previously driven by the pass-through effect of high crude oil prices—gradually dissipated. Consequently, the cost side's ability to support high 1.3-butadiene prices steadily diminished, emerging as a key factor driving the downward adjustment of market prices. As of April 14, the settlement price for the May contract of US WTI crude oil futures stood at $91.28 per barrel, while the settlement price for the June contract of Brent crude oil futures was $94.79 per barrel.

Supply Side: During the first half of April, the domestic 1.3-butadiene market maintained a relatively tight stance, although the pace of supply contraction showed signs of slowing down. Domestically, certain facilities—such as those at Yanshan Petrochemical and Gulei Petrochemical—that had previously been shut down have yet to fully resume operations; meanwhile, facilities like those at Yangzi Petrochemical are undergoing maintenance or operating at reduced loads. Consequently, the operating rates of major domestic production capacities have not reached full utilization, resulting in only limited growth in 1.3-butadiene output. In the overseas market, although facilities in key Asian producing nations—such as South Korea and Japan—are gradually restarting, the lingering effects of earlier supply contractions persist. The replenishment volume of imported cargo has fallen short of expectations, making it difficult for external sources to provide any substantial incremental supply to the domestic market. In terms of inventory, 1.3-butadiene stocks at ports in East China remain at historically low levels. Market availability of tradable spot resources is tight, supply distribution across certain regions is uneven, and traders hold insufficient reserves. Consequently, the willingness to sell at low prices remains generally weak, and the overall market supply continues to be tight.

Dongming Petrochemical's 50,000-ton/year 1.3-butadiene unit is operating normally; 224 tons are available for external sale, with a floor price of 15,800 RMB/ton.

Shenghong Refining & Chemical's 200,000-ton/year 1.3-butadiene unit is operating normally, with a current selling price of 16,500 RMB/ton.

Yantai Wanhua's 200,000-ton/year 1.3-butadiene unit is operating normally; 168 tons are available for external sale, with a floor price of 15,600 RMB/ton, and actual transaction prices ranging from 15,800 to 15,820 RMB/ton.

Satellite Chemical's 90,000-ton/year 1.3-butadiene unit is operating normally; the price has been raised by 300 RMB/ton, bringing the current selling price to 16,300 RMB/ton.

Demand Side:

The primary factor behind the weakening of the 1.3-butadiene market during the first half of April was the overall demand from downstream sectors, which exhibited a stable-to-weak trend and proved insufficient to sustain high price levels. The core downstream applications for 1.3-butadiene are synthetic rubber and ABS resins. The synthetic rubber industry, in particular, was severely impacted by the high cost of 1.3-butadiene; production costs surged significantly, the scope of industry-wide losses widened, and enterprises were compelled to reduce their operating rates. Downstream tire manufacturers maintained routine production levels; however, given the lackluster recovery in the end-market automotive sector, most manufacturers prioritized inventory reduction and displayed low enthusiasm for procuring raw materials from upstream suppliers. While demand within the ABS sector remained steady, it was unable to offset the contraction in demand observed across the rubber industry chain. Overall, downstream enterprises generally adopted a cautious, wait-and-see stance, predominantly engaging in small-lot, opportunistic restocking on price dips rather than undertaking any concentrated inventory replenishment; consequently, the demand side continued to drag down overall market performance.

Market outlook

Based on a comprehensive assessment of cost, supply, and demand factors, the domestic 1.3-butadiene market is expected to exhibit narrow, fluctuating movements during the latter half of April. Price volatility is projected to remain confined within a limited range, with limited scope for significant unidirectional gains or losses. On the supply side, the slow resumption of units undergoing short-term maintenance—coupled with reduced import arrivals—will provide underlying support to market prices. Conversely, the sluggish pace of recovery in downstream terminal demand—and the consequent difficulty in rapidly stimulating raw material procurement—will continue to dampen the potential for a market rebound. Moving forward, key factors to monitor include fluctuations in international crude oil prices, changes in upstream raw material costs, and the operating rates and procurement activities of downstream industries such as synthetic rubber and ABS. Furthermore, market sentiment will be periodically influenced by news updates and shifts in spot trading volumes; consequently, short-term market trends are expected to continue trading within a defined range, driven by the interplay between supply and demand dynamics.

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