Price trend

According to SunSirs Spot Market Watch: During the first half of April, the Dimethyl Carbonate (DMC) market exhibited a volatile downward trend, characterized by sustained weakness. As of April 15, the average domestic price for industrial-grade DMC stood at 4,333 RMB/ton—marking a cumulative decline of 4.76% over the half-month period, while representing a year-on-year increase of 22.07%.

Fundamental Analysis

Supply Situation

Overall supply remains ample, with some production units simultaneously undergoing maintenance and restarting operations. Facilities such as Yulin Baijiarui and Shandong Zhuohang are operating normally; while units at sites like Dongying Haike and the Shida Dongying production zone have not yet fully resumed operations following shutdowns, the overall volume of supply has not seen a significant reduction, and pressure from spot market circulation persists. The market anticipates a slight increase in supply in the near future.

Demand Overview

Downstream demand is predominantly driven by essential requirements. Purchasing sentiment within the polycarbonate and methyl ethyl carbonate sectors remains cautious, with buyers largely adopting a replenishment strategy characterized by small, frequent orders; consequently, there is a lack of concentrated, large-volume demand, resulting in relatively low market trading activity.

Cost Factors

Prices for the raw materials methanol and propylene oxide have generally remained at relatively high levels; however, as geopolitical premiums gradually dissipate, prices for both methanol and propylene oxide at the raw material end are likely to retreat, leading to a weakening of cost-side support.

Market outlook

In the short term, the market is expected to maintain a stable-to-weak trend, with prices highly likely to fluctuate within a narrow range around current levels. On the supply side, facilities undergoing maintenance are gradually resuming operations, potentially leading to a further increase in supply volume; meanwhile, the demand side is unlikely to see any significant improvement. Consequently, the supply-demand imbalance may persist, creating substantial resistance to any upward movement in prices.

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