Price trend
According to data from the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, as of April 15, the average quoted price for premium-grade DMF from domestic manufacturers stood at 5,840 RMB/ton. Market prices for DMF have recently experienced a modest uptick, indicating that the DMF market was trending slightly upward.
Root cause analysis
Market Supply: The supply landscape within the domestic DMF market presents a rather complex picture. While the production facilities of several major manufacturers are operating relatively stably—maintaining consistent operating rates—other enterprises have experienced varying degrees of production cuts or complete shutdowns due to factors such as equipment maintenance and environmental regulations. Consequently, the overall market supply has fluctuated, with some regions even facing tight supply conditions. From a regional perspective, the East China region—serving as a primary hub for both the production and consumption of DMF—exerts a significant influence on the broader market; the production status of large-scale local enterprises directly impacts supply and pricing in surrounding markets. Meanwhile, in the North China region, increased scrutiny from environmental inspections has led to reduced operating rates at certain facilities, further altering the overall supply dynamics of the market.
Inventory Status: In April, overall inventory levels for DMF remained in the low-to-moderate range. Due to production cuts or shutdowns at various enterprises, the influx of new supply into the market diminished, resulting in a relatively rapid rate of inventory depletion. Concurrently, the steady flow of downstream demand also contributed to the reduction of stock levels. However, inventory conditions varied across different regions; areas with convenient transportation and concentrated consumption exhibited relatively low inventory levels, whereas more remote regions held comparatively higher stocks.
Raw Material Costs: The primary raw materials for DMF are methanol and liquid ammonia; consequently, fluctuations in their prices have a significant impact on DMF production costs. In April, methanol market prices followed a trend of initial rise followed by a subsequent decline. During the early part of the month, methanol prices edged upward—driven by rising international crude oil prices and scheduled maintenance at various methanol production facilities—which directly increased DMF production costs. However, in the latter part of the month, as new methanol plants came online and import volumes increased, market supply gradually eased; this led to a pullback in methanol prices, thereby alleviating cost pressures on DMF to a certain extent. Liquid ammonia prices remained relatively stable throughout April, though minor localized fluctuations were observed; in some regions, prices rose due to the onset of the peak demand season in the agricultural sector, which also had a discernible impact on DMF production costs.
Downstream Demand: The downstream sectors for DMF primarily encompass polyurethane, pharmaceuticals, pesticides, and leather. In April, demand for DMF across these industries exhibited varied trends. Within the polyurethane sector—driven by the gradual recovery of the real estate market and the steady growth of the automotive industry—demand for polyurethane products increased, thereby stimulating demand for DMF. Demand for DMF in the pharmaceutical and pesticide industries remained relatively stable, showing minimal susceptibility to seasonal fluctuations. Conversely, in the leather industry, heightened environmental regulations prompted some enterprises to reduce their usage of DMF; nevertheless, overall demand in this sector remained sustained at a consistent level.
Market Outlook
Analysts at the Business Society (SunSirs) specializing in DMF believe that, after comprehensively weighing factors such as market fundamentals, production costs, and demand dynamics, DMF prices are expected to undergo a period of volatile adjustment during the latter half of April. Should market supply remain consistently tight while demand continues to grow steadily, DMF prices may experience a certain degree of upward movement; conversely, if raw material prices plummet significantly or downstream demand falls short of expectations, DMF prices could face a downward correction.
SunSirs has been continuously tracking price data for over 200 commodities for nearly 20 years, please contact support@sunsirs.com for subscription.
