Price trend

According to monitoring data from the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, the market for #1 tin ingots in the East China region has trended upward recently (April 1–14). At the beginning of the month, the average market price stood at 375,920 RMB/ton; as of April 14, the average price reached 383,270 RMB/ton, marking an increase of 1.96%.

Market analysis

Supply Side

Persistent supply constraints serve as the core supporting factor. The resumption of tin mining operations in Myanmar remains sluggish, while Indonesia has implemented strict controls on illegal mining and tightened export approval procedures; collectively, these factors have severely limited the growth in global tin ore supply. Although domestic tin ore imports surged by a substantial 96.04% year-on-year in February 2026, they declined by 3.69% month-on-month, with the actual increase in ore shipments from Myanmar falling short of expectations. Furthermore, with domestic smelters maintaining low levels of raw material inventory, the output of refined tin has been constrained, resulting in a tight supply of circulating material within the market.

Demand Side

The market has witnessed an explosive surge as the peak season gets underway. April—traditionally part of the "Golden March, Silver April" peak season—saw an acceleration in the resumption of work and production across the infrastructure and real estate sectors, while the automotive and home appliance industries ramped up operations to fulfill backlogged orders. Concurrently, emerging demand—driven by sectors such as AI computing centers and photovoltaic installations—has risen rapidly, leading to a substantial increase in downstream demand for products like tin solder and PV ribbons. Notably, shipments of AI servers have demonstrated significant year-on-year growth; moreover, the volume of tin consumed per unit of AI hardware far exceeds that of traditional equipment, establishing this sector as the primary incremental driver behind the recent rise in tin prices.

Macroeconomic Outlook

Positive signals continue to emerge. The United States and Iran have reached a two-week ceasefire agreement, alleviating geopolitical risks; consequently, the U.S. Dollar Index has weakened, and overall market sentiment for commodities has improved. Furthermore, although market expectations regarding a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have been somewhat pushed back, inflation expectations remain elevated. This provides valuation support for industrial metals, leading to a sustained inflow of capital into sectors featuring scarce industrial metals, such as tin.

Market outlook

Based on a comprehensive analysis of technical and fundamental factors, tin prices are expected to maintain a trend of strong, volatile trading with an upward-shifting center of gravity through late April. In the short term, prices are poised to test the 400,000 RMB/ton threshold; however, in the medium term, caution is warranted regarding the risk of a price correction driven by a recovery in supply.

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