According to data from SunSirs, the domestic market for Butadiene Rubber (BR) has experienced a continuous upward trend for five months since November 2025. Prices peaked on April 7 at 18,140 RMB/ton—a cumulative increase of 62.69%. As of April 14, the market price for BR stood at 16,640 RMB/ton, representing an 8.27% decline from its recent high.
From November to December 2025, market supply for BR contracted slightly, while downstream demand—driven primarily by essential needs—remained somewhat weak; consequently, prices edged up only marginally from their floor. On the supply side, the average operating rate of domestic high-cis BR facilities reached 71.44%, though some enterprises temporarily shut down for maintenance. On the demand side, operating rates for downstream tire manufacturers hovered around 63% for all-steel tires and 71% for semi-steel tires; while overall essential demand provided a baseline of support, trading activity at higher price points remained sluggish.
Starting in January 2026, the upward momentum in the BR market began to accelerate. The core driving factors centered on three key aspects: First, downstream manufacturers actively stockpiled inventory ahead of the Lunar New Year, and operating rates in the tire sector rebounded sharply after the holiday, thereby bolstering demand for BR. Second, escalating conflicts in the Middle East toward the end of February kept international crude oil prices at elevated levels; this, in turn, widened the supply deficit for butadiene—a key raw material—and drove up production costs for BR. Third, a confluence of routine facility maintenance and rising production costs—which rendered production unprofitable for some firms—led to involuntary production cuts, further exacerbating the tightness in supply.
In early April, as news regarding negotiations between the U.S. and Iran emerged, bullish sentiment within the BR market gradually waned, causing prices to retreat from their recent highs. However, given that several production facilities remained offline for maintenance or were operating at reduced capacity, the persistent tightness in supply served to limit the extent of this price correction.
Looking ahead, from an industry fundamentals perspective, although tensions in the Middle East have cooled down in the short term, shipping-related disruptions remain largely unresolved. Furthermore, the supply deficit for the raw material, butadiene, has yet to be alleviated, meaning the pattern of constricted supply is expected to persist. Coupled with stable essential demand from the downstream tire sector, BR prices are likely to retain a degree of support in the short term. In the medium to long term, as newly added domestic butadiene capacity comes online, the current supply tightness is expected to ease. Furthermore, with the resumption of operations at BR (BR) facilities and the commissioning of new production capacity, prices may face downward correction pressure.
According to spot market indicators tracked by SunSirs, the current spot price curve for BR has—since April 5—gradually fallen below its 10-day, 20-day, and 30-day moving averages. This suggests a high probability that the BR market has concluded its recent upward cycle and may be reaching a cyclical turning point. Additionally, the BR "Five-Tier Position Warning System" indicates that current prices are situated in an "overbought" zone relative to both 10-day and one-year historical trends. While prices may experience a slight rebound in the short term, there remains a high probability that, from a medium-to-long-term perspective, the BR market is entering a downward cycle.
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