A recent survey indicates that analysts expect U.S. soybean oil inventories to reach 2.173 billion pounds by the end of March—a 4.5% increase month-over-month and a staggering 45% surge year-over-year—marking the highest level recorded in 13 years.

With analysts forecasting that end-of-March inventories will hit a 13-year high of 2.173 billion pounds—reflecting a 4.5% monthly rise and a 45% annual surge—the data points to a severe supply glut and weak demand. This constitutes a major bearish factor for spot prices, and the spot market is consequently expected to come under pressure and decline. When combined with recent data from soybean oil futures (such as the benchmark contract 2605 closing at 8,476 RMB/ton—down 41 points—amidst a decrease in open interest), the news of surging inventories reinforces bearish expectations. This could drive futures prices even lower, while the shifts in open interest for the benchmark contract suggest a strengthening risk-averse sentiment within the market.

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