Price trend

With the easing of tensions in the Middle East and the dissipation of crude oil premiums, domestic PTA prices have recently undergone a rapid correction. According to the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, as of April 14, the spot price of PTA in the East China region stood at 6,392 RMB/ton—a decline of 7.79% compared to one week prior.

Market analysis

Cost factors remained the primary market driver, with crude oil price volatility directly influencing market sentiment. On April 8, the international crude oil market witnessed an epic plunge; both WTI and Brent crude futures breached the key psychological threshold of $100 per barrel, with WTI recording a single-day decline exceeding 16%. The core drivers behind this downturn were the realization of a temporary ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran—leading to a rapid restoration of expectations regarding safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz—coupled with a larger-than-expected build-up in U.S. crude oil inventories. Consequently, the market engaged in a concentrated sell-off to unwind the geopolitical risk premiums accumulated in the preceding period, resulting in a simultaneous sharp decline in both crude oil and refined product futures. As of April 14, the market was undergoing a modest corrective rebound.

In April, the industry entered its spring maintenance phase; facilities at leading enterprises were successively taken offline, causing the industry's operating rate to retreat slightly to the vicinity of 80%. Domestic PTA plants commenced large-scale maintenance, leading to an anticipated contraction in domestic supply and a generally firm stance on the supply side. Inventory levels entered a destocking cycle, and the tight supply of raw materials—a trend observed throughout April—persisted; furthermore, the possibility of unplanned maintenance at certain facilities remained, with tight spot market liquidity providing price support. Moreover, with no new PTA production capacity added throughout the entire year, the long-term pressure of excess supply has dissipated.

On the demand side, market performance remained relatively weak. The textile industry was temporarily in its traditional off-season, characterized by a shortage of export orders; consequently, operating rates among weaving mills in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions continued to hover at low levels. Within the polyester sector, finished product inventories were accumulating, and purchasing activity was largely limited to meeting immediate, essential needs; this situation created a distinct negative feedback loop against high PTA prices, thereby constraining their potential for further upward movement. Nevertheless, as operating rates in sectors such as soft drinks steadily rise—and as previously stockpiled inventories are gradually drawn down—demand is expected to undergo a moderate recovery. As the market gradually enters the traditional peak consumption season during May and June, restocking demand is poised to be unleashed, potentially shifting the supply-demand balance into a state of tight equilibrium. However, should raw material prices persist at elevated levels, downstream purchasing appetite could remain dampened, introducing uncertainty regarding the ultimate extent of the improvement in demand.

Market outlook

Looking ahead, a downward trend in PTA prices may be taking shape. Key factors to continue monitoring include the progress of PTA plant maintenance, crude oil price trends, and the recovery of downstream demand during the peak season.

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