Price trend
Last week (April 7–13), the market for premium-grade acrylic acid in East China exhibited a pattern of high-level consolidation followed by a volatile downward trend. The benchmark price tracked by SunSirs edged down slightly from 13,083.33 RMB/ton to 12,983.33 RMB/ton, marking a cumulative weekly decline of 0.76%. Compared to the peak of 13,116.67 RMB/ton recorded in early April, the cumulative decline stood at 1.02%; market participants remained largely on the sidelines, and trading activity continued to be sluggish.
From the perspective of price cycles, acrylic acid prices were situated at an absolute historical high. The price peaked at 13,116.67 RMB/ton earlier this year, with the latest quoted price standing at 12,983.33 RMB/ton—a mere 133.34 RMB/ton shy of the year's high. This represents an increase of over 122% compared to the year's low of 5,850 RMB/ton. Having consistently maintained a "high-level" position for the past year, the market exhibits clear signals of a one-year overshoot and distinct characteristics of a price bubble.
Influencing Factors
Supply Side: Acrylic acid prices have continued their upward trend since March and are currently hovering at historical highs. Manufacturers enjoy ample profit margins, and the overall operating rate is estimated at approximately 81.05%—an increase of about 4.40% compared to the previous period—though some enterprises still have maintenance plans in place.
On the demand side: Operating rates in downstream sectors—such as acrylate esters and Super Absorbent Polymers (SAP)—remain moderate. With terminal demand entering its traditional off-season, downstream enterprises show limited tolerance for current high price levels; purchasing is largely confined to immediate necessities, and the willingness to stockpile remains subdued, making it difficult to sustain further upward price momentum. Elevated prices have dampened downstream purchasing appetite, and incremental support from the demand side continues to wane.
Cost Side: As a key feedstock, propylene prices have recently been trading at elevated levels, albeit showing slight signs of softening. As of April 14, the benchmark price for propylene—as reported by SunSirs—stood at 9,207.67 RMB/ton; this represents a 4.82% increase compared to the beginning of the month (8,784.33 RMB/ton), thereby providing underlying support to acrylic acid prices.
Market outlook
1. Short-term (1–2 weeks): Current prices are at an absolute historical high; signals indicating an excessive surge over the past year are evident, and further upside potential is extremely limited. Market sentiment is characterized by a strong wait-and-see attitude, lacking any driving forces for further upward movement. Acrylic acid prices are expected to fluctuate within the 12,800–13,100 RMB/ton range in the short term; should downstream demand fail to show a significant recovery, the possibility of prices breaking below 12,800 RMB/ton—thereby initiating a sustained downward trend—cannot be ruled out.
2. Medium-to-Long Term (1–3 Months): The current rally in acrylic acid prices has persisted for two months, surging by over 120%. This constitutes a typical instance of "overshooting"—a market scenario where prices have become severely decoupled from underlying fundamentals. As high inventory levels accumulate and resistance from downstream sectors intensifies, downward pressure for a medium-to-long-term correction continues to build. Barring any unexpectedly positive developments on the demand side, prices are projected to gradually retreat within the next three months to a rational range of 10,000–11,000 RMB/ton, thereby reverting to fundamentals-based pricing.
In summary, the acrylic acid market experienced volatile downward movement last week. While the short-term trend leans bearish, the prevailing high-level market structure remains unchanged over the medium to long term. Moving forward, key factors to monitor include signals from moving average crossovers and shifts in market supply and demand dynamics.
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