Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, lithium carbonate has recently exhibited a volatile trend. As of April 14, the domestic benchmark price for battery-grade lithium carbonate—as tracked by SunSirs—stood at 159,000 RMB/ton, representing a month-on-month increase of 1.27% and a year-on-year increase of 124%. Amidst the interplay of multiple factors—including disruptions at the mining end and shifts in supply-demand dynamics—the market continues to undergo volatile consolidation, with short-term uncertainties remaining notably prominent.

Mine-side Disruptions: Impact of Domestic License Renewals Is Limited; Overseas Policies Remain Uncertain

On the domestic front, the Natural Resources Department of Jiangxi Province recently released assessment reports regarding the proceeds from the transfer of mining rights for four lithium mines in Yichun, drawing market attention to local lithium supply dynamics. The four mines publicly disclosed in this announcement are the Tong'an Porcelain Mine in Tong'an Township (Yifeng County), the Dagang Kaolin Mine in Huaqiao Township (Yifeng County), the Baishihuashan Porcelain Stone Mine in Huaqiao Township (Yifeng County), and the Dingxing Porcelain Stone Mine in Dongcao Village (Yifeng County). These four mines involve key entities such as Yongxing Materials, Corun, and Jiuling Lithium, collectively accounting for nearly 30% of the nation's lepidolite production capacity—a volume equivalent to an annual reduction of over 50,000 tons in lithium carbonate supply.

On the international front, significant progress has been made regarding the lifting of Zimbabwe's ban on lithium ore exports. Recently, the Zimbabwean government—via a formal letter from the Minister of Mines—clearly outlined a comprehensive set of preconditions for lifting the ban. These conditions require companies to provide a written commitment to construct local beneficiation facilities, complete the construction of lithium sulfate processing plants by January 1, 2027, and ensure the full repatriation of export proceeds. Concurrently, the government will allocate export quotas, levy a 10% export tax on concentrates, and require companies to submit monthly progress reports. Market reports dated April 13 indicate that Zimbabwe has approved a six-month export quota for lithium concentrates for several Chinese-funded enterprises; specifically, Huayou, Sinomine, Yahua, and Shengxin have each been allocated 200,000 tons, with the quotas eligible for renewal upon expiration after six months. The submission of export license applications commenced today, and exports are expected to resume shortly.

Fundamentals: Simultaneous growth in both supply and demand, coupled with inventory accumulation, is hindering further price upside.

From the supply-side perspective, domestic lithium carbonate production has gradually rebounded since April. As saltworks that had previously undergone maintenance successively resume operations, the pace of domestic capacity release has accelerated; concurrently, lithium carbonate exports from Chile have witnessed significant growth, emerging as a key force in supplementing domestic supply.

Overall demand has remained resilient, exhibiting a steady upward trend. Although sales figures for electric vehicles have appeared somewhat weak—influenced by seasonal factors and the tapering of government subsidies—the volume of battery capacity deployed at the end-user level has risen significantly. Concurrently, the outlook for the energy storage sector remains optimistic, with leading enterprises generally maintaining full production capacity. With the conclusion of the holiday season in March, demand has rebounded sharply on a month-over-month basis. Structurally, demand for lithium iron phosphate (LFP) is projected to see substantial sequential growth, while demand for ternary lithium batteries is expected to remain relatively subdued; going forward, key areas of focus will be shifts in the structural composition of the EV market and changes in export expectations.

Market outlook

Overall, the core logic currently driving the lithium carbonate market is that price expectations are being dominated by supply-side disruptions. With Chile's lithium carbonate export volumes likely to remain at high levels—coupled with the gradual clarification of Zimbabwe's export policies—market concerns regarding short-term supply shortages have significantly eased. Consequently, the fundamentals for lithium carbonate have marginally weakened in the short term; however, given the robust demand, the market is expected to experience volatile fluctuations moving forward. Specific market movements will continue to depend on key factors such as the progress of mining license renewals in Yichun, the implementation of export quotas in Zimbabwe, the pace of production resumption at domestic salt plants, and shifts in downstream demand.

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