Since April, prices in the domestic monoammonium phosphate market have remained volatile at high levels amid a complex interplay of factors, including strong cost pressures, relatively tight supply, and the gradual winding down of downstream demand for spring plowing. Based on SunSirs’ benchmark price data as of April 15, and in conjunction with prevailing market conditions across the industry chain, the price transmission logic for monoammonium phosphate and its upstream and downstream products is summarized as follows. I. Price Trends of Core Products (April 15)

Monoammonium Phosphate (55% Powder)

SunSirs Benchmark Price on April 15: 4,133.33 RMB/ton

Compared to early April: +0.89% Compared to early March: +7.55%

Sulfur

SunSirs benchmark price on April 15: 6,483.33 RMB/ton, Compared to early April: +9.09%, Compared to early March: +65.81%

Phosphate Rock (30% grade, average market price in major producing regions) April average price: 1,025 RMB/ton, Compared to early April: +3.53%,Compared to early March: +15.79%

Synthetic Ammonia (Average Market Price in Major Production Areas)

April Average Price: 2,720 RMB/ton, Compared to early April: +5.41% ,Compared to early March: +11.84%

Overall, monoammonium phosphate prices continued to trend upward, but the pace of increases has slowed significantly, exhibiting characteristics of “stagnation at high levels and slowing transactions.”

II. Logic of Price Transmission Between Upstream and Downstream Sectors

1. Cost Side: Sulfur Leads the Rally, Strengthening Cost Support

As the primary raw material for monoammonium phosphate, sulfur prices have continued to rise sharply since April, becoming the core driver of cost increases. SunSirs data shows that sulfur prices have risen by over 60% compared to early March, exerting significant upward pressure on costs across the entire phosphate fertilizer industry chain.

Phosphate rock supply remains tight due to mining restrictions and increased resource concentration, driving prices steadily higher. Synthetic ammonia prices have also risen slightly in tandem, influenced by energy costs and fluctuations in plant operating rates. The simultaneous rise in these three key raw materials has continuously increased the comprehensive cost of monoammonium phosphate, significantly intensifying production pressures on enterprises and substantially strengthening price support from the bottom.

2. Supply Side: Operating Rates Remain Low, Spot Market Supply Tight

On the supply side, the industry’s overall operating rate remains at a relatively low level. On one hand, high raw material costs are squeezing corporate profits, prompting some facilities to voluntarily reduce production loads; on the other hand, periodic environmental protection and safety production requirements also impose certain constraints on capacity utilization, resulting in limited overall industry output.

Most companies maintain relatively low inventory levels. Backlogged orders support a firm pricing stance among producers, while limited spot market circulation and a scarcity of low-priced supplies provide support for prices to remain at elevated levels.

3. Demand Side: Spring Plowing Nears Its End, and Essential Demand Gradually Weakens

The demand side is currently the primary factor constraining further price increases for monoammonium phosphate. As the use of fertilizer for spring plowing nears its end, the concentrated stockpiling phase for compound fertilizer manufacturers has concluded, and the pace of procurement has slowed significantly, shifting from earlier bulk restocking to small-order purchases based on immediate needs.

High prices for monoammonium phosphate have significantly dampened downstream acceptance. Compound fertilizer manufacturers face difficulties in passing on costs, leading to a decline in overall production rates and a continued weakening of essential demand for monoammonium phosphate. Although demand from the industrial sector remains stable, its volume is limited and insufficient to offset the impact of declining agricultural demand.

III. Impact on the Industry Chain and Market Landscape

The rapid rise in costs and the gradual weakening of demand have created a clear counterbalance, resulting in a market landscape for monoammonium phosphate characterized by “easier to fall than to rise, but with limited downside potential.” Strong prices for upstream sulfur and phosphate rock have locked in the cost floor for phosphate fertilizers, while softening downstream demand has constrained the upside potential for prices, leaving the industry chain in a state of weak equilibrium at high levels.

For the downstream compound fertilizer industry, persistently rising raw material prices have driven up production costs. However, with insufficient growth in end-user demand, it is difficult to raise product prices, leading to a continuous compression of profit margins. Some enterprises have chosen to reduce production capacity to mitigate risks. IV. Market Outlook

With raw material prices such as sulfur remaining at high levels, the cost-support logic remains unchanged. Coupled with overall tight supply, the likelihood of a significant decline in monoammonium phosphate prices is low, and they are likely to continue fluctuating at high levels. Overall, the current market is driven by cost factors, while demand is gradually weakening. Amid the tug-of-war between bulls and bears, the market continues to fluctuate at high levels, with both upstream and downstream players adopting a cautious wait-and-see approach and engaging primarily in transactions driven by immediate needs.

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