Entering April, the cement industry has exhibited operational characteristics of “seasonal recovery with limited rebound and significant regional divergence” amid relatively stable costs and a fragile supply-demand balance. This analysis systematically examines the logic of the cement industry chain by considering recent price trends, cost pass-through across upstream and downstream sectors, and changes in demand.
I. Core Products and Price Performance
1. Cement Price Trends (As of mid-April)
Average price of 42.5 ordinary Portland cement (bulk): The national mainstream range is 270–297 RMB/ton. In regions such as Chongqing, prices rose by 30–40 RMB/ton after mid-March and remained stable with a slight upward trend in early April.
Regional Differences: North China and Northeast China saw slight price increases due to peak-shifted production; East China and Central-South China stabilized after initial increases, while transaction prices in Northern Jiangsu and Northern Anhui saw a decline; Southwest and South China remained weak, with some regions experiencing a correction of 10–20 RMB/ton.
2. Key Upstream and Downstream Prices
Thermal Coal (Core Fuel): The benchmark price in mid-April was 763.75 RMB/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the month, indicating limited cost-side support.
Cement Clinker (Semi-finished Product): Prices in many regions adjusted in tandem with cement prices; in some areas, inventories remained low due to peak-shifted production, providing cost support for cement.
Concrete (Major Downstream Product): Cement accounts for approximately 30% of concrete costs; currently, the impact of rising cement prices on the end market is limited, and concrete mixing plants are adopting a more cautious procurement approach.
II. Cost Side: Raw Materials Remain Stable, Limited Support
Cement production costs are primarily composed of thermal coal, electricity, limestone, and transportation expenses. In April, thermal coal prices remained stable, industrial electricity costs fluctuated minimally, and limestone supply was relatively ample. The overall cost curve remained relatively stable, making it difficult to drive significant cement price increases.
Meanwhile, environmental compliance costs remain rigid, with increased expenses for ultra-low emission retrofits and regulatory compliance further compressing profit margins. The stable cost environment provides a floor for cement prices but lacks upward momentum.
III. Supply Side: Off-Peak Production and Output Controls, Inventory Disparities
On the supply side, the industry continues to implement off-peak production policies. Kiln shutdowns and output restrictions in northern regions, along with spring maintenance in parts of the south, have effectively alleviated excess supply pressure. National cement output in January–February grew by 6.8% year-over-year; however, kiln operation rates in the north rose rapidly after the holiday, causing a mismatch between the pace of capacity release and demand recovery, resulting in significant regional disparities in inventory levels.
Inventory Levels: In regions such as Chongqing, inventories have fallen from high levels to 50%-55%, remaining within a reasonable range; in some northern regions, inventory utilization rates have climbed to 65%-70%, approaching the warning threshold.
Market Competition: Due to cost advantages (10-15 RMB/ton lower than larger plants), grinding stations have refrained from raising prices or even offered discounts to move inventory, diverting market share and forcing price corrections in some regions. The overall supply side is characterized by the coexistence of “supply control and price stabilization” and “low-price competition,” which affects the consistency of price trends.
IV. Demand Side: Peak-Season Recovery with Structural Divergence
The demand side is the core variable driving current cement price fluctuations. April marks the traditional “Silver April” construction peak season, with accelerated site resumptions and the concentrated launch of infrastructure projects; however, weak demand from the real estate sector continues to constrain overall volume.
1. Infrastructure Sector: Providing a Floor but with Limited Implementation Pace
Major projects under the 14th Five-Year Plan and key local initiatives are accelerating, driving increased demand in sectors such as transportation, water conservancy, and urban renewal. However, project funding and construction progress have fallen short of expectations, resulting in only structural support for cement demand from infrastructure.
2. Real Estate Sector: Deep Adjustment, Significant Drag
From January to February, the floor area of newly started housing projects fell by 23.1% year-on-year, with the decline widening. As the largest consumer of cement, the slump in the real estate sector directly suppresses total demand. While property developers’ efforts to “ensure delivery of completed buildings” have driven essential procurement, this has been insufficient to offset the overall downward pressure. Market sentiment remains cautious, with procurement primarily consisting of small orders and “buy-as-needed” purchases.
3. Regional and End-User Differentiation
Regional Differentiation: In major cities and core urban clusters, where projects are concentrated, demand has recovered quickly and price increases have been steep; in remote areas, with few projects and long transportation distances, price increases have been limited.
End-User Structure: Infrastructure-driven demand remains relatively stable, while demand from real estate and rural self-built housing is weak. Ready-mix concrete plants prioritize cost-effectiveness in their procurement and show low acceptance of high-priced cement.
Overall, in April, the cement industry is caught between cost support and weak demand. In the short term, the focus is on seizing the peak season window to reduce inventory and stabilize prices; in the long term, the industry must concentrate on improving the supply-demand structure and enhancing cost efficiency. The industry is expected to gradually shift from trend-driven fluctuations to a range-bound oscillation.
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