As we enter April 2026, spring fertilizer preparations are drawing to a close. Driven by the combined effects of ongoing policies to ensure supply and stabilize prices, as well as improving market fundamentals, earlier concerns regarding supply shortages have significantly eased. Currently, the potassium chloride market faces price adjustment pressures amid ample supply, while the potassium sulfate market continues to be characterized by a stalemate between costs and demand, with overall market operations trending toward stability.

I. Domestic Potassium Chloride:

Supply Has Improved Significantly; Prices Remain Stable Under Pressure

Under the strong intervention of domestic policies aimed at ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, the supply landscape in the potassium chloride market has improved significantly compared to earlier periods, and market sentiment has become more rational. Industry data shows that this week, the operating rate of domestic potassium chloride producers remained at a relatively high level of approximately 62.2%, with weekly output reaching about 106,000 metric tons. Port inventories stand at 2.43 million tons. Potash fertilizers from national reserves continue to be released into the market; the cumulative release volume has now reached approximately 2.11 million tons, significantly replenishing market supply and ensuring stable spot availability. As spring fertilizer stockpiling demand winds down, willingness to restock has weakened, and overall market trading activity remains subdued.

According to market quotes on April 7, the delivered price for 60% domestic potassium chloride in border trade was 3,100–3,250 RMB/ton; the ex-warehouse price for 62% Russian white potassium chloride at ports was 3,150–3,500 RMB/ton; and the ex-truck price for 62% Russian white potassium chloride in border trade was 3,150–3,200 RMB/ton.

II. Potassium Sulfate Market:

Ongoing Tug-of-War Between Cost Support and Weak Demand

The potassium sulfate market remains caught between high costs and sluggish demand, with a strong sense of market caution and limited trading activity. Cost pressures persist. Although the price of potassium chloride, a key raw material, faces downward pressure, it remains within a certain range; meanwhile, the price of sulfuric acid, another raw material, remains high, resulting in significant cost pressures for Mannheim process enterprises. Currently, the average price of potassium sulfate is approximately RMB3,970 per ton, with prices remaining generally stable. Demand-side support remains limited. Downstream compound fertilizer producers and direct agricultural users have limited acceptance of potassium sulfate at current high price levels. Purchasing sentiment is generally cautious, with most buyers focusing on small, on-demand replenishment orders, making it difficult to effectively drive up market prices. The ongoing tug-of-war between supply and demand has led to a stalemate in market trading.

III. Market Outlook:

Stable Market Expectations Under Policy Support

Supply and demand fundamentals are trending toward a more relaxed balance. As spring fertilizer demand gradually wanes, potash consumption is entering its traditional seasonal lull. Meanwhile, domestic production remains stable, port inventories are ample, and the state reserve continues to release stocks, ensuring overall market supply capacity is sufficient. This shift in the supply-demand relationship is the primary internal driver guiding prices back to stability.

The impact of the international market is manageable. China’s potash imports come from diverse sources, and domestic regulatory mechanisms are well-established, enabling effective filtering of regional fluctuations in overseas markets. Although structural divergence exists in the current global market, its direct impact on the Chinese market is limited.

Overall, the domestic potash market currently features robust supply guarantees, stabilizing demand, and significant policy regulatory effects. It is recommended that all market participants view market changes rationally, refrain from speculative activities, actively align with the policy orientation of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, jointly maintain the stable and orderly operation of the fertilizer market, and make every effort to ensure the smooth progress of subsequent agricultural production activities.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on April 13, the benchmark price for imported potassium chloride, as reported by SunSirs, stood at 3,600.00 RMB/ton—a decrease of 0.46% compared to the beginning of the month (3,616.67 RMB/ton). Meanwhile, the benchmark price for potassium sulfate was 4,100.00 RMB/ton, representing an increase of 1.65% compared to the beginning of the month (4,033.33 RMB/ton).

Application of SunSirs Benchmark Pricing：

Traders can price spot and contract transactions based on the pricing principle of agreed markup and pricing formula (Transaction price=SunSirs price + Markup).

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