Since April 2026, recurring geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have disrupted global energy and chemical supply chains. High crude oil prices, constraints on overseas production facilities, and tight import supplies have collectively driven an overall upward trend in domestic chemical product prices. The cost advantage of the coal-to-chemicals route has become more pronounced, and industry price differentials have improved significantly. Based on Business Society’s latest benchmark prices as of April 13 and comparative data from early April, this analysis systematically examines the logic behind the current price fluctuations, product-specific divergences, and future market trends.

I. Cost-Driven Price Increases: Synergy of High Crude Oil Prices and Supply Shortages

The core drivers of this broad-based price surge in chemical products are rising costs and contracting overseas supply. Intermittent disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have intensified global concerns over crude oil supply, keeping Brent crude at elevated levels and directly driving up production costs for oil-based chemical products. Meanwhile, as a major exporter of methanol and other products, Iran’s shipping disruptions have led to a significant reduction in import volumes. Domestic port inventories have been rapidly depleted, creating a dual bullish factor of “rising costs and tightening supply.”

Data shows that the SunSirs Brent crude benchmark price on April 13 was $115.00 per barrel, up 27.8% from $90.00 per barrel at the beginning of April; the WTI crude benchmark price was $101.40 per barrel, up 26.0% from the start of the month. Across-the-board increases in energy prices have driven up costs across the petroleum industry chain, serving as the core driver behind the rise in chemical product prices.

II. Key Product Prices and Price Movement Logic (Including Comparison with SunSirs Benchmark Prices)

Methanol: On April 13, the SunSirs benchmark price was 3,320.00 RMB/ton, up 7.1% from 3,100.00 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month. Hindered imports from Iran have led to a continuous decline in port inventories. Improved profitability in the coal-to-chemicals route, coupled with a tight supply-demand balance, has driven prices higher.

Acetic Acid: On April 13, the benchmark price for acetic acid, as reported by SunSirs, stood at RMB4,750.00  per ton—an increase of 14.73% compared to the beginning of the month (RMB4,140.00 per ton).. Rising methanol prices, combined with low operating rates at some facilities, have created tight supply conditions that supported price increases.

PX: The SunSirs benchmark price stood at 9,200.00 RMB/ton, up 9.5% from 8,400.00 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month. Declining operating rates at Asian refineries and contracting overseas supply have led to expectations of a widening supply-demand gap.

PTA: On April 13, the SunSirs benchmark price for PTA stood at RMB6,365.86  per ton, representing a decrease of 5.86% compared to the beginning of the month (RMB6,761.93  per ton).. Strength in the raw material PX, combined with industry-led production cuts and expectations of inventory drawdowns, is supporting prices.

Regarding PX, due to declining operating rates at Asian refineries, overseas PX export shipments are also expected to contract. Additionally, xylene, a raw material for PX, can also be used as a blending component for refined oil products. High refined oil prices may stimulate a shift in some xylene demand toward blending applications, further reducing PX supply. Therefore, we believe the PX supply-demand gap is expected to widen further. Driven by rising upstream raw material costs, prices for downstream PX products such as PTA and polyester have all seen significant increases, though price differentials among these products have diverged to some extent. Among these, PTA has the weakest ability to pass on price increases, with spreads remaining largely at bottom levels; BOPET has the strongest ability to pass on price increases, primarily due to relatively inelastic demand for specific product grades in downstream sectors such as packaging, printing, electronics, and appliances; price pass-through for bottle-grade polyester has also improved, as reduced overseas supply—given the high proportion of exports—may provide some upward pressure on prices; price pass-through for polyester filament yarn is relatively less pronounced, as weak terminal demand has limited its ability to follow price increases.

Soda Ash: SunSirs benchmark price is 1,950.00 RMB/ton, up 3.7% from 1,880.00 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month. Rising ammonium chloride prices have widened the spread with the soda ash-based method, providing significant cost support.

Soda Ash and Chlor-Alkali: Rising Ammonium Chloride Prices Help Widen the Integrated Soda Ash Spread, with Cost Support Driving PVC Price Increases

Regarding soda ash, coal and raw salt prices fell slightly month-on-month in March, while ammonium chloride and synthetic ammonia followed urea prices higher, leading to a narrowing of the ammonia-soda process spread and a widening of the integrated soda ash process spread. On the supply side, with new natural soda ash capacity still in the ramp-up phase, supply remains relatively ample. Overall, a supply-demand mismatch persists in the soda ash industry, and the impact of natural soda ash on the sector is becoming increasingly prominent. Market conditions remain weak, and attention should be paid to the operational sustainability of synthetic soda ash producers.

Regarding caustic soda, Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in March caused energy prices in Japan and South Korea to rise, leading to increased domestic caustic soda procurement and a rebound in prices from their lows. In the long term, due to declining operating rates at key downstream alumina producers and narrowing price differentials, we believe it may still take time for the caustic soda market to improve amid contracting domestic demand. However, under the expectation of China’s “dual carbon” policies for the chemical industry, chlor-alkali profitability is expected to stabilize.

PVC: On April 13, the SunSirs benchmark price for PVC stood at 4,937.00 RMB/ton, representing a decrease of 6.07% compared to the beginning of the month (5,256.00 RMB/ton). Rising ethylene costs have driven prices higher, while downstream demand remains stable.

Regarding PVC, prices rose sharply due to the rapid increase in ethylene costs. However, after downstream buyers snapped up inventory during earlier price hikes, demand began to resist high-price orders, leading to a slight decline in PVC prices at the end of March. Currently, ethylene-based PVC has fallen into a loss, while calcium carbide-based PVC has seen short-term profit improvement. Against the backdrop of expectations for the chemical industry’s “dual carbon” policies, we are optimistic about the clearance of low-end PVC supply and an imminent recovery in market conditions; on the demand side, export opportunities warrant attention

Urea: The SunSirs benchmark price is 2,520.00 RMB/ton, up 5.0% from 2,400.00 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month. Demand for spring planting preparations is robust, and high overseas prices are boosting domestic market sentiment.

III. Supply and Demand Dynamics: Supply Optimization + Restocking Expectations Support Market Sentiment

On the supply side, fixed-asset investment in the chemical industry has declined year-on-year since 2026, with capital expenditure growth continuing to slow and limited new capacity additions. Coupled with the advancement of “anti-overcapacity” and “carbon dual-control” policies, as well as the accelerated exit of high-cost production capacity in Europe, Japan, and South Korea, the domestic chemical supply landscape continues to optimize. The conflict in the Middle East has further accelerated the exit of outdated overseas production capacity, highlighting the stability advantages of the domestic supply chain.

On the demand side, downstream inventories have been reduced to low levels. If the geopolitical situation gradually stabilizes, global chemical products are expected to enter a restocking cycle, driving a recovery in demand. Although demand is currently in the off-season, essential demand provides significant support, and export demand for some products continues to rise due to overseas supply gaps.

IV. Market Outlook: Primarily Range-Bound at High Levels; Monitor Situation Developments

In the short term, as long as geopolitical conflicts have not fully subsided, high crude oil prices and supply gaps will continue to support strong chemical prices, and price differentials for coal-based and oil-based advantage products are expected to continue narrowing. In the medium to long term, if the geopolitical situation stabilizes, coupled with supply-side optimization and the release of restocking demand, industry sentiment is expected to continue improving.

Two key risks warrant close attention: first, significant fluctuations in crude oil prices, which could alter cost-side support; second, a slower-than-expected recovery in downstream demand, which could hinder the smooth transmission of price increases. Overall, the chemical market is currently in a phase where supply contraction and demand recovery are reinforcing each other. In the short term, prices are expected to remain volatile at elevated levels, while the medium- to long-term outlook is highly likely to remain positive.

SunSirs has been continuously tracking price data for over 200 commodities for nearly 20 years, please contact support@sunsirs.com for subscription.