In the first quarter of 2026, the domestic ABS market experienced a strong rebound, with prices rising rapidly from low levels to reach a recent high. Entering the second quarter, the market exhibited a pattern of rising first and then falling, driven by cost support and supply-demand dynamics. Short-term price volatility has intensified, while the medium-term trend depends on the delicate balance among raw material prices, plant maintenance, and downstream demand. Drawing on SunSirs’ latest benchmark prices, this report provides a comprehensive analysis of the ABS market’s first-quarter performance, recent developments, and second-quarter trends.

I. Q1 ABS Market: Cost-Driven, Strong Uptrend

The ABS market completely shook off its slump in the first quarter, with prices rising across the board. The core drivers were rising raw material costs and a temporary tightening of supply. As of March 31, SunSirs’ ABS benchmark price stood at 12,766.67 RMB/ton, up over 43% from the start of the year, with the market exhibiting a “step-like rise” trend.

In January, prices for raw materials styrene and butadiene surged significantly, causing a sharp increase in cost pressures for ABS producers. To offset losses, manufacturers collectively raised ex-factory prices. Coupled with the release of market restocking demand, prices rose rapidly, with domestic ABS prices breaking through 11,400 RMB/ton by month-end. In February, the market was affected by the Spring Festival holiday, experiencing a pattern of first rising then falling, with overall volatility. After the holiday, raw material prices strengthened again, supporting ABS prices; however, the slow resumption of operations in downstream sectors and resistance to high prices led to a slight market correction. In March, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East drove up crude oil and upstream chemical prices, providing strong cost-side support for ABS. Coupled with maintenance at some production facilities and tight supply, prices experienced a new round of sharp increases, rising over 20% during the month and stabilizing above RMB12,700 per ton by month-end.

On the supply side, industry operating rates rose initially then fell in the first quarter, stabilizing at around 69% by the end of March. Weekly average output was approximately 135,000 tons, with inventories at moderate levels, shifting the supply balance from tight to ample. On the demand side, essential demand from downstream home appliance and automotive sectors remained stable, but acceptance of high prices was limited. With insufficient momentum to chase rising prices, market transactions fluctuated with price movements, with overall activity dominated by essential procurement.

II. Recent Developments in the Second Quarter: Correction from Highs, Weakened by Raw Material Prices

Entering April, the ABS market remained at high levels, but has seen a noticeable correction over the past two days, with prices falling slightly. According to SunSirs data, the ABS benchmark price was 13,233.33 RMB/ton on April 8, dropping to 12,866.67 RMB/ton on April 9—a daily decline of 1.28%. The price remained at this level on April 10, representing a 0.78% increase from the beginning of the month.

The primary reason for this correction is the weakening of the raw material market. As the main raw material for ABS, styrene prices have fallen sharply. On April 9, SunSirs’ styrene benchmark price dropped from 10,720 RMB/ton to 10,170 RMB/ton, a daily decline of 5.13%. This was mainly due to ample supply, downstream demand falling short of expectations, and a temporary correction following excessive earlier gains. Although butadiene remained at high levels (with mainstream quotes in East China exceeding 18,000 RMB/ton), the market’s upward momentum slowed. Acrylonitrile prices remained stable, and the overall cost center for raw materials shifted downward, weakening support for ABS prices.

On the supply side, multiple domestic ABS plants entered a concentrated maintenance period in April, with production expected to decline. However, stimulated by earlier high prices, market inventory remains ample, traders are more willing to offload stock, and low-priced supplies are flooding the market. On the demand side, downstream industries are in their traditional off-season, with purchasing activity slowing down. Resistance to high-priced ABS has intensified, with purchases driven primarily by essential needs, leading to sluggish market trading and further dragging prices downward.

III. Second-Quarter ABS Market Forecast: Volatility at High Levels, Strong Start Followed by Weakness

The ABS market will remain at elevated levels in the second quarter, though trends will diverge. Prices are expected to remain firm in April, fluctuate in May, and correct in June. Overall, the price center will remain higher than in the first quarter, with increased volatility.

In April, concentrated plant maintenance will lead to a contraction in supply. Coupled with raw material prices that, despite a short-term correction, remain at high levels, strong cost support, stable essential demand from downstream sectors, and increased export demand, prices are expected to remain firm at high levels, with no significant declines anticipated. In May, the supply contraction effect will persist, and costs will remain high. However, downstream sectors will be slow to absorb high prices, market transactions will weaken, and prices will enter a high-level fluctuation range with limited room for both gains and losses. In June, plant maintenance will conclude and supply will gradually recover. Downstream demand will weaken further as the industry enters its traditional off-season. If raw material prices decline alongside an easing of geopolitical tensions, ABS prices will undergo a rational correction, giving back some of their earlier gains, though they will remain at elevated levels overall.

Regarding risks, if tensions in the Middle East persist and crude oil and raw material prices rise again, this will support stronger ABS prices; however, if downstream demand remains sluggish and high prices fail to be effectively passed on, it may trigger an accelerated market correction. Overall, in the second quarter, the ABS market will exhibit a pattern of “volatility at high levels, starting strong but ending weak” amid the interplay of costs, supply, and demand, with prices fluctuating within the range of RMB12,500–13,500 per ton.

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