Price trend
According to the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, from April 3 to April 10, the volume of available supply increased, leading to a weakening of supportive factors on the supply side. Operating rates across downstream industries rose overall, resulting in increased consumption of raw materials; consequently, the supply-demand gap for BDO widened. As the interplay between supply and demand continued, the pace of market price increases slowed down.
Market analysis
Regarding the supply landscape—specifically concerning production facilities—although the first phase of the Xinye plant and the second line of Hualu have been shut down for maintenance, the restart of several units that had previously undergone maintenance has led to an increase in available supply, thereby weakening support from the supply side. Consequently, the bullish influence on the BDO supply market has diminished.
Statistics on the Operational Status of Facilities at Selected Manufacturers:
|
region |
Device dynamics |
|
Xinjiang Shuguag Lvhua |
The annual output of the 100,000-ton plant is overhauled for 50 days from March 20 |
|
Xinjiang Meike |
the third phase of the device is stopped, and the first, second, fourth and fifth phases of the device are running steadily; May maintenance plan |
|
Inner Mongolia Sanwei |
300,000 tons/year BDO plant, the current load is around 70-80% |
|
Shaanxi black cat |
The load is 90%, and the maintenance is 10 days from April 10 |
|
Xinjiang Xinye |
Stable operation, tentatively planned for maintenance on May 4 for 15 days |
|
Inner Mongolia Dongjing Biotechnology |
In the first phase of parking; The second phase is loaded at 50%, and the maintenance is planned for 20 days in April, and the specific time is to be determined |
|
Ningxia Wuheng Chemical |
The annual output is 25.6, and the load of the device is 60-70%; It is temporarily planned to rotate for 25 days in July |
Regarding the cost side: In the calcium carbide sector, the overall market—characterized by an imbalance of supply exceeding demand—was the primary driver behind the recent rapid downward adjustment in prices. Furthermore, an increase in the volume of calcium carbide sold externally by integrated producers exacerbated the accumulation of market inventory, thereby accelerating the downward price trend. As for methanol, while the pace of price appreciation has slowed, the market remains fundamentally supported by a tight supply-demand balance and a continued depletion of inventory; consequently, despite the moderated rate of growth, prices continue to maintain a generally firm trajectory. With raw material calcium carbide trending downward and methanol fluctuating within a defined range, the BDO industry continues to face pressure from operating losses; from a cost perspective, the factors currently influencing the BDO market are predominantly bullish.
Regarding demand—specifically within downstream sectors—operating rates have risen in the PTMEG and PBAT industries, while rates for PBT and PU slurry production have declined. Consequently, the overall incremental growth in demand remains limited, leading to a widening gap between supply and demand. Although many downstream industries have adjusted their pricing in response to rising raw material costs, the effective transmission of these costs to end-consumers remains sluggish; as a result, their capacity to absorb high-priced raw materials is currently weak. Overall, the impact of downstream market dynamics on BDO demand presents a mixed picture.
Market outlook
Supply volumes have contracted, bolstering support on the supply side, and suppliers remain intent on propping up market prices. Downstream demand has contracted overall; furthermore, the transmission of costs along the industrial chain remains sluggish, resulting in weak downstream willingness to procure spot goods at high prices—a factor expected to weigh on raw material price trends. Analysts at SunSirs forecast that the domestic BDO market will primarily undergo a period of consolidation following its recent upward movement.
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