Recent turmoil in the Middle East and disruptions to key shipping lanes have dealt a severe blow to the global fertilizer supply chain, causing prices to soar and profoundly impacting the global food production landscape. This chain reaction, triggered by energy and geopolitical conflicts, has once again thrust the global issue of food security into the spotlight and underscored the critical importance of a stable supply of agricultural inputs for agricultural production.
Fertilizers are often hailed as the “food of food,” with nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium fertilizers serving as the core elements supporting crop growth. Leveraging its abundant energy resources, the Middle East has become a pivotal region for global fertilizer production and export, with Iran alone accounting for nearly half of the region’s urea exports. The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately one-third of global fertilizer trade shipments, serving as a critical channel for the circulation of agricultural inputs. Following the outbreak of conflict, local fertilizer production has stalled and logistics have been disrupted, causing a sudden tightening of supply and directly triggering a surge in international market prices. Relevant data shows that international fertilizer prices have risen sharply in the short term, reaching record highs in recent years, with price increases in some regions reaching levels rarely seen in two decades. More than 60% of the global urea supply is now under threat.
According to media reports, among the nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium essential for food production, nitrogen-based fertilizers such as urea and ammonia—which promote leaf and stem growth—are produced by extracting hydrogen from natural gas and synthesizing it with atmospheric nitrogen. Gulf countries such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Oman, which are rich in natural gas resources, are the primary exporters.
The Middle East is the world’s largest exporter of urea, with annual exports totaling approximately 25 million tons. Iran accounts for 40% to 45% of the Middle East’s total exports. Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 20% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments and about 30% of fertilizer shipments. The outbreak of the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict has severely disrupted urea production and logistics trade in Middle Eastern countries such as Iran, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, leading to a potential restructuring of international urea prices and trade flows.
Following the outbreak of hostilities, World Bank statistics show that urea, a representative fertilizer, saw a sharp month-on-month increase of 54% in March. The World Bank’s Commodity Price Outlook indicates that the international price of urea stands at $726 per ton, a significant rise from $472 the previous month. This represents a year-on-year increase of more than 1.8 times, reaching the highest level since April 2022, when fertilizer prices surged due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
According to China Chemical News, S&P Platts reported that on March 19, the price of granular urea in the Middle East had surged to $604–710 (per ton, same below). Prior to the conflict, prices ranged from $435 to $490, and were only around $400 at the beginning of the year. Foreign media reports indicate that since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, urea prices in Illinois, U.S., have surged by $230, marking the largest two-week increase in the past 20 years.
Agricultural production follows strict seasonal patterns. As the Northern Hemisphere is currently in the critical window for spring plowing and sowing, and Asia is in the midst of rice planting, the impact of fertilizer shortages and soaring prices is particularly devastating. Fertilizer costs account for a significant portion of grain production costs; a sharp price increase directly drives up planting costs, leaving many farmers facing the dilemma of being unable to afford or obtain sufficient supplies. In some regions, farmers have been forced to reduce fertilizer application rates or adjust their crop structures by abandoning high-fertilizer-input crops, which will directly lead to lower yields. Unlike energy products, there are no global strategic reserves for fertilizers, and supply chain disruptions are difficult to resolve quickly. Once the planting and fertilization window is missed, annual grain production will suffer irreversible damage, which will then ripple through the entire supply chain—including grains, feed, and livestock products—exacerbating global food supply pressures.
The turmoil in the global fertilizer market has further exposed the fragility of food security. Major agricultural nations reliant on fertilizer imports are bearing the brunt of the impact, with downward revisions to food production and export forecasts, and the global food trade landscape facing a restructuring. Low-income, food-deficient countries have even weaker resilience to such risks; rising fertilizer prices will increase the cost pressure of food imports and exacerbate regional hunger risks, posing a severe test to the global food security system. This crisis also serves as a warning that agricultural supply chains—which rely heavily on a single regional source and lack flexible reserves—are highly susceptible to paralysis in the face of sudden risks such as geopolitical conflicts. The global agricultural cooperation system requires a more balanced and resilient structure.
In stark contrast to the violent fluctuations in the international market, China’s fertilizer market has maintained stable operations, building a solid barrier for food security. Leveraging a comprehensive fertilizer industry system, China has achieved high self-sufficiency in nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers, with a diversified raw material structure that effectively hedges against fluctuations in international energy prices. At the same time, through a series of measures—including reserve management, production-to-sales coordination, and transportation safeguards—the country ensures ample fertilizer supply and stable prices during critical periods such as spring plowing. Domestic fertilizer prices remain significantly lower than international levels, thereby reducing planting costs for farmers.
In today’s era of deepening globalization, food security is no longer a private matter for individual nations, but a shared challenge concerning the survival and development of all humanity. The fertilizer crisis in the Middle East has once again demonstrated that geopolitical conflicts, energy price volatility, and supply chain disruptions all ripple through the agricultural input chain to the farm fields, affecting everyone’s food security. Faced with a complex and ever-changing international landscape, countries should strengthen agricultural cooperation, facilitate trade in agricultural inputs, improve regional reserve systems, and enhance supply chain resilience. At the same time, they should increase investment in agricultural technology, promote scientific fertilization techniques, improve fertilizer utilization efficiency, and reduce reliance on external supplies.
Stable fertilizer means stable agriculture; stable agriculture means food security. Against the backdrop of ongoing turbulence in the global agricultural inputs market, we must remain vigilant against food security risks triggered by fertilizer shortages and urge the international community to work together to stabilize supply chains.
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