Following the Qingming Festival, the market for pesticide active ingredients continues to surge. According to the latest data from Zhongnong Lihua, as of April 5, 2026, the prices of glyphosate and chlorantraniliprole have climbed once again, reaching high levels of 31,500 RMB/ton and 320,000 RMB/ton, respectively. Together with over 30 other active ingredients, such as avermectin, they paint a market picture where the upward trend shows no signs of abating. This wave of price increases, driven by a combination of costs, supply and demand, and industry self-regulation, warrants a closer examination of its underlying logic and future trajectory.

Glyphosate: Underpinned by essential demand and inventory control strategies, driving high-level price consolidation

Glyphosate prices are currently consolidating around RMB31,500 per ton, a result of the ongoing tug-of-war between supply and demand at this juncture.

On the supply side, manufacturers—based on assessments of costs, industry self-regulation (such as the “Rectifying Practices and Curbing Speculation” campaign), and market outlook—have generally adopted a strategy of “cautious shipments and controlled distribution.” This has kept social inventories persistently low, providing solid support for prices.

On the demand side, the essential demand driven by the global spring application season remains strong. Although downstream buyers are adopting a wait-and-see attitude amid high prices, passive restocking demand continues to form the market’s foundation. This scenario of “supply-side control and essential demand providing a floor” is the core reason for the current high-level price consolidation and resistance to declines, and it also makes the market extremely sensitive to any supply-side disruptions (such as environmental regulations or plant maintenance).

Chlorantraniliprole: Aftermath of the Incident Continues to Unfold, Prices Rise Amid Strong Market Expectations

Chlorantraniliprole has risen to RMB320,000 per ton. The driving force behind this increase has shifted from the initial shock of the sudden accident in early February to strong market expectations of a prolonged supply shortage. The disruption to the raw material supply chain caused by the accident cannot be resolved overnight.

Industry insiders note that as of April, raw material shortages have not only failed to ease but have actually intensified market concerns about future capacity gaps as time passes. These concerns have been sharply amplified against the backdrop of the approaching peak application season. Driven by fears of “unavailability” and the “must-have” nature of the product, both domestic and international clients have become more proactive in placing orders and stockpiling, further fueling market anxiety and price expectations. Consequently, the current high prices reflect not only the immediate impact of the incident but also the market’s consensus that supply will remain tight in the short to medium term.

Market Outlook: High Costs and Supply-Demand Dynamics

High Price Levels Likely to Persist

Clearly, the pesticide active ingredient market is expected to enter a new phase in April, dominated by high fixed costs and complex supply-demand dynamics.

Supported by the essential demand for spring applications, the overall pattern of high prices for pesticide active ingredients is unlikely to be reversed quickly, though the breadth and intensity of the increases will tend to moderate. The market will seek a new dynamic equilibrium amid high costs, stringent regulation, and a tight supply-demand balance, presenting an overall picture of “high-level volatility and product differentiation.” Downstream enterprises need to adopt differentiated procurement and inventory strategies based on the specific drivers of each product to adapt to market changes.

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