Since the beginning of April, domestic fluorite prices have shown a slight upward trend. As of the 8th, the average domestic price stood at 3,575 RMB/ton—an increase of 0.18% compared to the price at the start of the month (3,568.75 RMB/ton), though representing a year-on-year decline of 4.98%.
Supply Side: Influenced by Multiple Factors, Fluorspar Spot Supply Remains Tight
1. Mine Resumption Falls Short of Expectations; Operating Rates in Major Production Regions Remain Sluggish.
Recently, the resumption of operations at domestic fluorite mines and beneficiation plants has generally proceeded at a slow pace. In the core production regions of the North, operations are constrained by a dual impact of adverse weather conditions and policy restrictions, resulting in operating loads significantly lower than those observed during the same period in previous years. Inner Mongolia—a major domestic fluorite production hub—continued to be affected by low temperatures in early March, hindering both mining and transportation activities. Compounding this situation were intensified safety and environmental inspections conducted during the "Two Sessions" (Lianghui) period; consequently, a number of small and medium-sized mines suspended operations for rectification, resulting in limited output from compliant production capacity. Meanwhile, although production regions in the South—such as Jiangxi, Zhejiang, and Fujian—have gradually resumed operations, their beneficiation plants face slow recovery rates due to tight supplies of raw ore. As a result, these southern regions are struggling to offset the supply deficit in the North; consequently, the overall operating rate of the national fluorite industry remains at a low level, and actual spot market output has fallen short of market expectations.
2. Industry Regulation Becomes Normalized; Legacy Capacity Continues to Be Phased Out
As a scarce mineral of national strategic importance, fluorite has been subject to continuously escalating safety and environmental regulations in recent years. Controls on total mining output have been tightened, inefficient small-to-medium-sized mines are being phased out at an accelerated pace, and industry concentration is steadily increasing. Given the stringent approval process for new mines and the inherent difficulties associated with mineral exploration, the growth of effective domestic fluorite production capacity has been sluggish, and high-grade raw ore has become increasingly scarce. Concurrently, measures such as mine rectification and production restrictions have become routine occurrences, further constricting the supply of material circulating in the market. Consequently, manufacturers' inventories are generally at low levels, traders hold limited stocks, and the willingness to sell at low prices is extremely low—a dynamic that has established a market landscape characterized by "scarcity driving up prices."
3. Import supplies are limited, making it difficult to alleviate the domestic supply-demand gap.
Despite China's reliance on foreign sources for fluorite exceeding 30%, overseas supplies have recently tightened as well, resulting in no significant increase in import volumes. Major import origins—such as Mongolia—are constrained by transportation and production capacity limitations; consequently, actual fluorite arrivals have fallen short of expectations. Furthermore, persistently high import costs have made it difficult to effectively bridge the domestic spot market deficit, thereby further exacerbating the tight domestic supply situation and bolstering the upward trend in domestic market prices.
Demand Side: Recovery in Downstream Fluorochemicals; Support from Rigid Demand Gradually Emerges.
1. Hydrofluoric acid prices rise, driving demand for raw material procurement.
The downstream market for anhydrous hydrofluoric acid has strengthened in tandem; mainstream delivered prices have risen to 14,000–14,500 RMB/ton. With some enterprises restarting their production facilities and operating rates rebounding, rigid demand for fluorspar—a key raw material—has increased. Although hydrofluoric acid producers face compressed profit margins due to rising costs for auxiliary materials such as sulfuric acid—leading them to adopt a rational approach toward purchasing high-priced fluorspar—demand for seasonal inventory stocking is gradually being unleashed. Supported by this rigid demand, the market's transaction price center for fluorspar is steadily trending upward, effectively transmitting the downstream price increases further upstream to the raw material sector.
2. Refrigerant Quotas Implemented; Stockpiling Expectations for Peak Season Intensify
With the official implementation of the 2026 refrigerant quota policy, industry concentration has further intensified. Leading enterprises are releasing production capacity in an orderly manner; coupled with the approaching peak summer season for air conditioning and refrigeration, refrigerant products have experienced comprehensive price hikes. Downstream refrigerant manufacturers are stocking up in advance, thereby driving a recovery in demand for upstream hydrofluoric acid and fluorspar. Concurrently, demand for fluorochemical products within the new energy and new materials sectors continues to grow—particularly for products such as lithium hexafluorophosphate and fluoropolymers, which are exhibiting impressive growth rates. This indirectly stimulates a rigid demand for fluorspar, highlighting the resilience of demand over the medium to long term and providing strong support for fluorspar prices.
Market Outlook:
The domestic fluorspar market is expected to maintain its tight supply-demand balance, with prices retaining upward momentum. On the supply side, weather conditions and regulatory controls in northern production regions are set to persist; consequently, the pace of mine restarts is unlikely to accelerate significantly in the short term, and inventory levels are expected to remain low. On the demand side, as temperatures rise, operating rates within the downstream fluorochemical sector are poised to increase further. Stockpiling demand ahead of the peak season continues to be released, while cost support and positive market sentiment remain intact. Consequently, fluorspar prices are projected to exhibit a strong, fluctuating trend, with quotations for certain high-grade supplies showing a continued tendency toward moderate appreciation.
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