According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, domestic lithium carbonate prices have recently continued to exhibit a volatile trend. As of April 8, the SunSirs benchmark price for domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate stood at 156,000 RMB/ton—a month-on-month increase of 1.3% and a year-on-year increase of 117%. The trajectory of this trend is primarily driven by the interplay of supply-side dynamics, the resilience of demand, and broader macroeconomic sentiment.

Supply Side: The "Dual Disruption" Dynamic—Dominated by Policy and Supply Uncertainties

The supply side serves as the core "trigger" behind the current round of price volatility; as two major disruptive factors continue to intensify, the market repeatedly oscillates between "expectations of easing" and "long-term tightening."

Zimbabwe Ban: Hanging in the Balance, Subject to Repeated Disruption

On February 25, 2026, Zimbabwe announced an indefinite suspension of exports of raw lithium ore and lithium concentrates. This policy was fully implemented ahead of schedule on March 3, with the core objective of promoting in-country value-added processing of minerals—a strategy modeled after Indonesia's approach to nickel ore. In late March, rumors circulated that Chinese enterprises—including Sinomine Resource Group—had been granted export quotas, prompting an immediate price correction in the market. However, Sinomine Resource Group responded by stating that the matter was "still under discussion, with no definitive timeline established." On March 31, the eighth Cabinet meeting of the year reaffirmed the maintenance of the ban, showing no signs of relaxation. On April 2, leaked government documents from Zimbabwe reportedly revealed new requirements: by January 1, 2027, companies must construct lithium sulfate production facilities that meet government standards, pass official acceptance inspections, and demonstrate readiness for commercial operation. After January 1, 2027, exports will be restricted exclusively to deeply processed products—such as lithium sulfate—while the export of lithium concentrates will be completely prohibited.

Australia's Fuel Crisis: Marginal Disruptions Amplified

Due to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, diesel supplies have become tight at several mines in Australia. Given that the Australian mining sector consumes approximately 9.6 billion liters of diesel annually—and that lithium mines are not designated as priority recipients for supply guarantees—the situation is a cause for concern. Although it has been clarified that the diesel is primarily used for transportation and has not yet directly impacted production, Australia accounts for roughly 30% of the global lithium supply. With current supply elasticity diminished, even minor disruptions are easily amplified into perceived "supply cutoff risks," thereby exacerbating market anxiety.

Other Supply Disruptions: Uncertainty persists regarding the resumption of operations at mines such as Ningde Jianxiawo; coupled with the unclear pace of production restarts at major domestic mines, the overall supply side lacks elasticity, thereby further amplifying price volatility.

Demand Side: Energy Storage Emerges as a Core Growth Driver, While Automotive Recovery Provides Support.

The demand side serves as the "ballast" anchoring prices at elevated levels; driven by the dual engines of energy storage and new energy vehicles, demand resilience has exceeded expectations.

Energy Storage: The Primary Growth Engine—Production Scheduling Share Surpasses 40%

In March 2026, the total scheduled production volume for China's domestic lithium-ion battery market reached approximately 219 GWh—a month-on-month increase of 16.5%. Notably, the share of scheduled production allocated to energy storage cells rose to 40.6%; this represents a significant increase since the beginning of the year, establishing energy storage as a core source of demand now running neck and neck with power batteries. Prices for energy storage systems have stabilized and begun to rebound: the price of 314Ah energy storage cells rose from 0.31 RMB/Wh to 0.36 RMB/Wh, while winning bids for energy storage systems climbed from 0.5 RMB/Wh to 0.8 RMB/Wh. With this price recovery coinciding with a surge in demand volume, the market's positive momentum is accelerating into tangible results.

New energy vehicles: Moderate recovery, with resilient installation volume

In March, estimated wholesale volumes of new energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers nationwide reached 1.12 million units—flat year-on-year but up sequentially. Coupled with a sustained increase in the battery capacity per vehicle, total battery installations did not experience a significant decline. Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory delivered over 85,600 vehicles in March—a 46% increase month-on-month. Nearly 60% of Tesla's global deliveries in the first quarter originated from the Shanghai facility, underscoring the robust demand within the Chinese market.

Support from the Supply-Demand Gap: Morgan Stanley forecasts a lithium deficit of 80,000 tons in 2026, while UBS projects a shortfall of 22,000 tons; this supply-demand gap provides fundamental support for elevated price levels.

Market Outlook

Overall, demand for lithium carbonate remains robust, and the price trajectory exhibits upward momentum. However, frequent market news disruptions and significant instability on the supply side introduce considerable uncertainty; furthermore, with prices already at elevated levels, the potential for further upside appears limited. Consequently, future developments will continue to hinge on shifts in market supply and demand dynamics.

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