Price trend
According to the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, from March 27 to April 3, domestic BDO prices rose from 8,157 RMB/ton to 8,433 RMB/ton. During this period, prices increased by 3.39%, representing a month-on-month rise of 14.41% and a year-on-year increase of 5.97%. As of April 3, BDO supply volumes had contracted, and favorable factors on the supply side remained in effect. Operating rates across downstream industries had generally improved, leading to increased consumption of raw materials; consequently, the supply-demand balance for BDO remained manageable. This situation reinforced suppliers' resolve to hold firm on pricing, while downstream buyers continued to follow up with purchases based on contractual agreements and actual demand.
Market analysis
Regarding the supply side—specifically plant operations—although Tianhua's large-scale facility had restarted, several other production units remained under maintenance. Consequently, the overall volume of available goods remained moderate; the supportive factors on the supply side persisted, bolstering suppliers' confidence in maintaining market prices. Overall, the BDO supply landscape continues to be influenced by bullish factors.
Statistics on the Operational Status of Facilities at Selected Manufacturers:
|
region |
Device dynamics |
|
Xinjiang Shuguang Lvhua |
The annual output of the 100,000-ton plant was overhauled for 50 days on March 20 |
|
Xinjiang Meike |
the third phase of the device was stopped, and the first, second, fourth and fifth phases of the device were running steadily; May maintenance plan |
|
Inner Mongolia Sanwei |
300,000 tons/year BDO plant, the current load was around 70-80% |
|
Xinjiang Guotai Xinhua |
The annual output of the 100,000-ton plant replaced the burner on March 25, which was expected to take 10 days |
|
Xinjiang Xinye |
Stable operation, tentatively planned for maintenance on May 4 for 15 days |
|
Sichuan Wanhua |
The main line was changed from March 20 to April 1 |
|
Ningxia Weiyuan |
It was overhauled on March 9 and restarted in early April |
Regarding costs, domestic ex-factory prices for calcium carbide retreated from recent highs. Driven by earlier price surges that boosted profitability, the number of production facilities resuming operations had increased, leading to a gradual rise in overall supply. The methanol market was temporarily fluctuating at elevated levels; supported by steady downstream demand—particularly from olefins plants—and positive expectations regarding the restart of MTO units in East China, overall market sentiment remained generally optimistic. With key raw materials—calcium carbide and methanol—trading within a fluctuating range, the BDO industry continued to face pressure from operating losses; consequently, cost-side factors were exerting a relatively bullish influence on the BDO market.
On the demand side—specifically within downstream sectors—operating rates in the PBT industry had increased, while demand from other downstream segments remained stable; consequently, overall demand volume was robust. Regarding upstream raw materials, market trends were firming up, leading to increased cost-side pressure; as a result, mainstream spot market offers were trending toward the higher end of the price range. Overall, demand-side factors were exerting a positive influence on the BDO market.
Market Outlook
With support from the supply side weakening and the transmission of costs along the industrial chain facing impediments, market prices are trending toward stabilization following a recent upward surge. As maintenance shutdowns conclude and production units restart, the volume of available supply has increased significantly, thereby diminishing the supportive factors originating from the supply side. Downstream demand shows no significant signs of improvement; consequently, the pressure arising from the supply-demand imbalance is expected to intensify—a factor that weighs negatively on market sentiment among industry participants. Analysts at SunSirs specializing in BDO anticipate that the domestic BDO market will primarily undergo a phase of consolidation following its recent price rally.
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