Price trend
According to data from SunSirs, the benchmark price for imported potassium chloride stood at 3,616.67 RMB/ton on April 3—unchanged from the beginning of the month—marking several consecutive days of sideways consolidation. From a broader perspective, prices began at a level of approximately 3,500 RMB/ton in early January 2026 and gradually climbed to a cyclical peak between late February and early March (chart peak: approximately 3,696 RMB/ton). Subsequently, the market underwent a high-level correction and transitioned into a volatile pattern, currently fluctuating within a narrow range of 3,610 to 3,620 RMB/ton.
Market Analysis
Supply Side: Last week, domestic potassium chloride producers maintained high operating loads; the weekly operating rate held steady at approximately 62.5%, with weekly output reaching approximately 106,500 tons—a sequential increase of about 2.3%. Regarding domestic production, leading enterprises such as Salt Lake Shares and Zangge Potash had fully resumed operations; their production facilities were running smoothly, and potassium fertilizer products continued to roll off the production lines for distribution across the country.
Regarding imports, domestic potassium fertilizer import volumes had continued to rise; in the fourth quarter of 2025, imports grew by 16.2% year-on-year, with the average monthly import volume for potassium chloride reaching 1.44 million tons (in physical terms). As of April 2, total port inventories of imported potassium chloride stood at 2.4291 million tons—a month-on-month increase of 0.57%. Although the pace of cargo withdrawals from ports remained brisk, minor replenishment from new shipments at certain ports had resulted in a slight overall increase in inventory levels. Policies aimed at ensuring supply and stabilizing prices continued to yield results; as of March 30, the volume of fertilizer released to the market to support the spring plowing season had reached 2.01 million tons, thereby effectively safeguarding market supply.
Demand Side: Support remains relatively limited. The weekly operating rate among downstream compound fertilizer manufacturers stood at approximately 50.6%—a high level—yet their procurement of potash fertilizers was largely confined to a "buy-as-needed" replenishment model, failing to generate any effective pull on the trading market. The period marked the tail end of fertilizer application for spring plowing; consequently, demand in the Northeast region was winding down. Meanwhile, a steady influx of supplies via border trade and the China-Europe Railway Express continued to arrive, further intensifying competition among market suppliers. This lackluster demand environment served as the direct reason why prices were struggling to gain upward momentum.
Market Outlook:
In the short term, domestic potassium chloride prices are expected to maintain a stable-to-slightly-weak trend. Prices for domestically produced potassium are likely to fluctuate minimally due to stable production levels; conversely, imported potassium may experience localized price softening, influenced by rising port inventories and the release of national strategic reserves. As of April 3, the benchmark price remained unchanged from the beginning of the month, signaling a short-term equilibrium between bullish and bearish forces; however, insufficient demand-side support and the continued implementation of supply-assurance policies will limit any potential upside in prices. Should international shipping costs continue to rise or import shipments face delays, the price of imported potassium could see a brief uptick; nevertheless, domestic policies aimed at ensuring supply and stabilizing prices are expected to cap the extent of any such gains.
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