On April 1, 2026, China officially implemented the policy to abolish VAT export tax rebates for photovoltaic products, while simultaneously phasing out tax rebates for solar cell products to zero. This policy adjustment not only directly impacts the export costs and competitive landscape of the photovoltaic industry chain but also has far-reaching implications for the supply-demand dynamics, price trends, and industry structure of the EVA (ethylene-vinyl acetate copolymer) market—a core raw material for photovoltaic laminates. By analyzing recent PV cell production data and the transmission mechanisms within the industry chain, we can clearly map out the market evolution following the policy’s implementation, providing valuable insights for industry participants.
Policy Context and Industry Fundamentals: Policy Impact Amid High Growth Baselines
The cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaic products is not an isolated policy but rather a structural adjustment against the backdrop of steady growth from a high baseline in the photovoltaic industry. Looking at the industry’s fundamental data, domestic photovoltaic cell production has continued to climb from 2021 to 2025, with industry capacity and market demand maintaining strong resilience: in January–February 2025, domestic photovoltaic cell production reached 87.364 million kilowatts, marking a significant year-over-year increase; in January–February 2026, output further climbed to 98.26 million kilowatts, with a year-over-year increase of 12.5%, highlighting the industry’s intrinsic growth momentum.
It is worth noting that PV cell production exhibits distinct seasonal patterns, with March typically marking the annual production peak, followed by a gradual, fluctuating decline. Since the export tax rebate policy took effect on April 1, it coincided with the industry’s seasonal fluctuations, further amplifying the policy’s impact on the EVA market. This created a dual effect of “policy shock + seasonal volatility,” setting the stage for short-term volatility and mid-term adjustments in the market.
Short-Term Impact (March–April 2026): Pulse-like Demand from Rush Exports, Supply-Demand Imbalance Drives Prices Higher
The early release of expectations ahead of the policy’s implementation, combined with the industry’s seasonal peak, has led to significant short-term volatility in the EVA market, characterized by “front-loaded demand, tight supply, and surging prices.”
On the demand side, since the policy explicitly uses the date of export customs declaration as the benchmark, companies that cleared customs before March 31 could still enjoy the original tax rebate benefits. As a result, module manufacturers rushed to “rush exports and rush customs clearance,” concentrating the fulfillment of overseas orders. This surge in module exports directly impacted downstream film manufacturers. To ensure production and hedge against future cost increases, film manufacturers urgently restocked EVA, causing a surge in demand for photovoltaic-grade EVA, which became the core driver of the short-term market.
On the supply side, market tensions have further intensified: major domestic EVA production facilities, such as those at Gulei Petrochemical, have entered maintenance periods, resulting in a contraction of effective production capacity. At the same time, overseas EVA manufacturers have taken the opportunity to withhold sales and reduce spot supply, leading to a temporary supply shortage in the domestic EVA market. Against this backdrop, the market exhibited a clear structural divergence: demand for photovoltaic-grade EVA (VA content ≥28%) remained robust, driving prices significantly higher, while demand for general-purpose EVA (primarily used in foaming and cable applications) was lackluster, with prices remaining weakly stable. The price gap between the two widened to as much as RMB1,500–2,000 per ton.
In terms of pricing, the price of photovoltaic-grade EVA surged rapidly in March to RMB12,000–13,000 per ton, representing an increase of over 20% from the beginning of the year. However, this rise lacked sustainable support and was essentially a “last-minute rush” driven by policy. As the policy officially took effect on April 1, the rush to export quickly subsided, and market demand for EVA swiftly returned to basic needs, bringing the price surge to an abrupt halt and entering a phase of high-level volatility followed by a decline. Furthermore, the cancellation of export tax rebates directly increased the cost of module exports, raising costs by RMB0.06–0.07 per watt and squeezing module manufacturers’ profit margins by 3–5 percentage points, which further curbed irrational EVA procurement by downstream buyers.
Medium-Term Impact (May–December 2026): Demand Returns to Rational Levels, Supply-Demand Dynamics Ease
As the short-term policy effects fade, the EVA market will gradually return to rationality, entering a mid-term adjustment cycle characterized by “slowing demand, ample supply, and price pressure.”
Adjustments on the demand side are the core variable for the mid-term market: On the one hand, after overseas markets absorbed a concentrated influx of Chinese module exports in March, channel inventories accumulated rapidly. Subsequent orders will enter a phase of caution and reduced volumes, making a slowdown in module export growth inevitable; On the other hand, solar cell production is entering a seasonal decline, with output gradually decreasing from April to June. EVA film manufacturers are returning to normal production schedules and no longer engaging in large-scale restocking, causing demand for photovoltaic-grade EVA to shift from a short-term surge to a stable yet weak trend. Meanwhile, the recovery in demand from traditional downstream industries such as foam and cable manufacturing is gradual and unlikely to offset the shortfall caused by the decline in photovoltaic-grade EVA demand, further weakening market demand support.
On the supply side, conditions remain persistently loose: in 2026, new domestic EVA capacity will be released in a concentrated manner, with annual additions reaching 1.69 million tons, bringing total capacity to over 5 million tons per year—a year-on-year increase of 43%. EVA production facilities previously undergoing maintenance will gradually resume operations, and import supplies will also gradually recover, continuing to increase pressure on the supply side. These opposing shifts in supply and demand are increasing overall pressure on the EVA market, pushing prices into a phase of adjustment. Specifically, the price center for photovoltaic-grade EVA is expected to shift downward to the 10,000–11,000 RMB/ton range, while general-purpose EVA prices will continue to fluctuate weakly, with some low-end grades potentially falling below the cost line.
Long-Term Impact (2027 and Beyond): Structural Industry Upgrading and Transition to High-Quality Development
The cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaic products essentially compels the photovoltaic industry chain to move away from low-price competition and transition toward high-quality development. This transformation will continue to ripple through the EVA industry, driving the market into a cycle of structural upgrading.
First, to avoid export cost pressures, module manufacturers will accelerate the expansion of overseas production capacity and reduce the scale of domestic module exports, thereby decreasing their direct reliance on domestic EVA feedstock. This will lead to an adjustment in the demand structure of the EVA market. Second, the logic of industry competition will shift from “scale expansion” to “cost control + product upgrading.” Photovoltaic-grade EVA will evolve toward high-end and customized applications, with heightened requirements for product purity and performance; General-purpose EVA, meanwhile, will undergo a transformation toward specialization, tapping into niche market demands to enhance product value-added. Finally, outdated production capacity will be rapidly phased out; EVA manufacturers with high costs, outdated technology, and substandard product quality will be eliminated by the market, and industry concentration is expected to gradually increase.
Summary: Policy Reshapes the Landscape; Enterprises Must Proactively Adapt to the New Cycle
The cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaic products marks the EVA market’s official departure from the era driven by policy benefits, entering a new phase driven by both “supply and demand dynamics” and “cost constraints.” In the short term, the market will experience volatility at high levels due to the rush-to-export effect, followed by a gradual decline; in the medium term, a pattern of loose supply and demand will take hold, with prices facing sustained downward pressure; in the long term, the industry will accelerate structural upgrades, with quality and cost becoming core competitive advantages.
For EVA manufacturers, it is essential to closely follow industry transformation trends, optimize product portfolios, increase R&D investment in high-end PV materials and specialized general-purpose materials, control production costs, and enhance market competitiveness. Downstream laminate and module manufacturers, meanwhile, must plan their procurement schedules reasonably to mitigate price volatility risks and adapt to demand shifts resulting from the industry’s transformation. Only by proactively adapting to market restructuring trends can companies achieve sustainable development in the new industry cycle.
As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on April 7, the EVA benchmark price reported by SunSirs stood at RMB13,283.33 per ton, remaining unchanged from the beginning of the month.
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