Price trend

According to monitoring data from SunSirs' Commodity Market Analysis System, lithium carbonate prices have experienced sharp fluctuations recently. As of April 1, the SunSirs benchmark price for battery-grade lithium carbonate stood at 158,000 RMB/ton—a month-on-month decline of 8.67%, yet a year-on-year increase of 113.61%.

Market analysis

The current market rally is no longer driven merely by simple supply-and-demand dynamics; rather, it is the result of the combined effects of recurring disruptions on the supply side—which have repeatedly intensified—and a low-inventory environment that has amplified market sentiment.

Supply Side: Two Major Sources of Disruption Repeatedly Intensified

(I) Zimbabwe: Export Ban "Hangs in the Balance"

On February 25, 2026, Zimbabwe abruptly announced an indefinite suspension of exports of raw lithium ore and lithium concentrates—a ban that extended even to goods already in transit.

In the wake of this news, the price of lithium carbonate surged, jumping from 140,000 to 170,000 RMB/ton. More recently, reports have emerged regarding ongoing negotiations between Chinese-funded enterprises and the government, though specific details and regulations have yet to be finalized. The market continues to oscillate between expectations of a "loosening of the ban" and a "long-term tightening" of supply; each new rumor triggers significant price volatility.

(II) Australia: The "Diesel Shortage Scare"

Impacted by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, certain mines in Australia have experienced a shortage of diesel fuel, giving rise to reports of "load reductions" and "curtailed operations." Consequently, the price of lithium carbonate surged by 8,000 RMB/ton within a single trading day. Although it was subsequently clarified that diesel in Australia is primarily utilized for transportation—while mine site power generation relies predominantly on natural gas—and that lithium mining operations have therefore remained unaffected for the time being, Australian lithium mines nonetheless face a confluence of challenges: declining ore grades, slowing production expansion, and—given that high-cost mines had already scaled back output during the recent period of low prices—a drastically reduced elasticity of supply. Under these circumstances, even the slightest marginal disruption is easily amplified into a perceived "supply cutoff risk."

Underlying Environment: Low Inventory + Resilient Demand — Amplifying the Impact of Supply Disruptions

At the end of March, inventory levels shifted from depletion to accumulation—albeit to a minor extent—and remained at a low level. Overall social inventory remains relatively low; consequently, should expectations of tightening supply intensify, it could very easily trigger a scramble for goods and a surge in prices. On the demand side, there has been no discernible collapse; moreover, geopolitical factors have driven up oil prices, highlighting the compelling economic viability of energy storage solutions and sustaining strong market momentum.

Market outlook

According to analysts at the Business Society specializing in lithium carbonate data, uncertainties regarding the resumption of operations in Zimbabwe, Australia, and the currently idled Ningde Jianxiawo facility are expected to persist over the long term. Any shift in policy or disruption to logistics could trigger a fresh round of extreme price volatility; consequently, lithium carbonate prices are likely to fluctuate, with specific market movements remaining contingent upon changes in supply and demand.

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