Preparing for spring plowing begins with securing agricultural supplies. As an indispensable resource for agricultural production, the reliability of potassium fertilizer supply directly impacts the stability of annual grain production. Recently, Zhou Yue, Secretary-General of the Potash and Potash Fertilizer Industry Branch of the China Inorganic Salt Industry Association, stated in an interview that during this year’s spring plowing season, the overall domestic supply of potash fertilizers is sufficient. Although structural shortages have emerged for certain varieties, the supply situation is gradually improving and prices are stabilizing as national policy adjustments take effect and market information becomes more transparent.

“Triple Increase” in Production, Imports, and Inventories

Zhou Yue explained that, in terms of total volume, domestic potash fertilizer supply during this year’s spring plowing season has increased compared to the same period last year.

Data shows that during the spring plowing fertilizer preparation period, domestic potash fertilizer production rose by 14.1% year-on-year. At the same time, potash imports have continued to grow, with import volumes up 22.9% year-on-year. In the fourth quarter of 2025, potash imports rose by 16.2% year-on-year, and the monthly average import volume of potassium chloride reached 1.44 million metric tons (physical volume).

“A new major potash contract was signed last November and began to be implemented early this year, providing a strong guarantee for import supplies during the spring plowing season. ” Zhou Yue stated.

Regarding inventory, as of the end of February, total potash fertilizer stocks at domestic ports reached 2.89 million metric tons (physical volume), a year-on-year increase of 6.4%. Meanwhile, inventories at production enterprises were also higher than last year. Zhou Yue noted: “Overall, domestic potash fertilizer supply this year has increased compared to last year. Although the increase is not significant, reserves are sufficient to meet spring plowing demand.”

The reporter learned that to solidify the foundation for fertilizer supply during the spring planting season, several companies, including Zangge Mining and Sinochem Fertilizer, recently issued a joint initiative to stabilize prices and ensure supply for spring planting preparations. Among them, Sinochem Fertilizer is taking a two-pronged approach: externally, it is communicating with major international potash suppliers, resulting in a significant year-on-year increase in import volumes from January to March; internally, it has collaborated with major domestic potash fertilizer producers such as Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co., Ltd., SDIC Luohe Potash, and Xiangfeng Group to ensure supply, meeting the market’s diverse needs with a wide range of fertilizer products.

Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of China Salt Lake Industry Group, began making early preparations as early as the second half of 2025 to comprehensively strengthen the foundation for supply security; regarding pricing, the company adheres to rational pricing and passes on benefits to farmers.

Structural Shortages in Certain Varieties

Although overall supply is sufficient, Zhou Yue admitted that a certain degree of structural shortage in potash fertilizers did occur during this year’s spring planting season, primarily manifested as tight supply of the “62% white potash” variety.

She explained that this variety is mainly used for downstream high-tower compound fertilizer production and processing-grade potassium sulfate, with supply primarily reliant on imports. Affected by a 1 million-ton reduction in production at major mining sources in Belarus last year, global supply of this grade has tightened, which has subsequently impacted the domestic market. “Currently, the shortage is primarily concentrated in 62% white potash(KCl), while other grades remain relatively stable,” Zhou Yue noted. She added that as subsequent import shipments arrive at ports and domestic enterprises adjust their allocations, the shortage is expected to gradually ease.

Regarding recent changes in the international situation, Zhou Yue believes their impact on the domestic potash market will be limited. Israel and Jordan are among China’s primary sources of potash imports, but the shipping routes from both countries are unaffected by the situation in the Red Sea. Furthermore, annual imports from Israel amount to approximately 600,000 metric tons, accounting for less than 6% of China’s total potash imports last year—a relatively small proportion. “Currently, production and transportation operations at relevant enterprises in both countries are proceeding normally. Therefore, the international situation is unlikely to have a significant impact on China’s potash market in the short term,” Zhou Yue added.

Yun Hongwei, Chief Representative of the Northwest Regional Headquarters of China Minmetals Corporation, noted that global potash supply is currently facing a shortage due to multiple factors, including production capacity and geopolitical issues. and international potash prices continue to rise. However, China, supported by a three-pronged approach of domestic production, imports, and reserves, has achieved a record-high potash supply, creating a divergent pattern of “global tightness versus domestic abundance.” Prices are influenced by both international market dynamics and domestic regulatory measures, resulting in a trend of “rising internationally but stable with fluctuations domestically.”

Notably, potash produced by Laotian enterprises is rapidly returning to the domestic market. According to reports, approximately 70% to 80% of the potash produced by Laotian enterprises has already returned to the domestic market.

Policy Measures to Ensure “Two Stabilities”

Reporters have learned that to ensure stable supply and prices of potash for the spring farming season, the central government has made early arrangements and implemented targeted policies.

On January 27, under the guidance of relevant national authorities, the China Agricultural Inputs Circulation Association, the China Phosphate and Compound Fertilizer Industry Association, and the Potash and Potash Fertilizer Industry Branch of the China Inorganic Salt Industry Association, leveraging the National Agricultural Inputs Supply Guarantee Platform, organized a potash fertilizer supply-demand matching conference. The event brought together key potash fertilizer suppliers, major compound fertilizer producers, and leading potassium sulfate manufacturers to facilitate the signing of annual long-term agreements across the potash fertilizer supply chain, thereby stabilizing supply and demand.

“Starting March 3, the China Agricultural Inputs Circulation Association has further disclosed information on purchasing entities, ensuring full transparency of data from 11 supplier companies and buyers,” Zhou Yue explained. This measure aims to prevent market speculation, hoarding, and diversion of goods, ensuring that potash resources reach compound fertilizer manufacturers, processing enterprises, distributors, and farmers directly, thereby truly passing on benefits to farmers.

Following the implementation of these policies, market liquidity has improved significantly. Zhou Yue revealed that secondary distributors now have a clearer expectation regarding the release of state reserve supplies, leading to enhanced market liquidity. Prices for previously tight varieties have already seen a slight decline.

Overall, Zhou Yue remains optimistic about the potassium fertilizer market trend during this year’s spring plowing season. She stated, “Demand for potassium fertilizer during spring plowing can be fully met. The policy has already stabilized the market; prices will not see significant increases, and the potential for further declines is limited, so the market will essentially remain stable.”

She also emphasized that as market transparency improves and the direct supply system is gradually refined, the efficiency of potassium fertilizer distribution and resource allocation will be further optimized, providing a solid foundation for spring plowing operations and a bountiful grain harvest throughout the year.

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