Price trend

According to the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, the domestic market for 1# lead ingots experienced low-level fluctuations in March 2026. The average domestic market price stood at 16,655 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month and 16,425 RMB/ton at the end of the month, marking a monthly decline of 1.38%.

On March 30, the SunSirs Lead Index stood at 99.84 points, remaining unchanged from the previous day. This represents a decline of 25.50% from the cycle's peak of 134.01 points (recorded on November 29, 2016) and an increase of 33.78% from the cycle's low of 74.63 points (recorded on March 19, 2015). (Note: The cycle period covers September 1, 2011, to the present.)

In March, lead prices exhibited a pattern of "low-level oscillation—bounded by both a floor and a ceiling"—with core fluctuations revolving around the interplay of "macroeconomic headwinds, supply-demand dynamics, and new delivery regulations for recycled lead futures."

Macroeconomic Factors

The macroeconomic landscape temporarily presented a distinct suppressive trend; the U.S. Dollar Index had risen for four consecutive sessions, approaching the 100 mark and hitting a four-month high. For lead prices, a strong dollar exerted direct downward pressure, while demand for commodities as an inflation hedge provided limited support. Amidst this tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces, prices remained under overall downward pressure.

Supply Side

In March, domestic operating rates for primary lead production gradually recovered; however, constrained by limited supplies of lead concentrate—which kept processing fees at low levels—the full release of primary lead production capacity was restricted. Meanwhile, secondary lead producers maintained low operating rates due to financial losses; this situation was compounded by the implementation of new national standards for secondary lead on March 1st, which drove up production costs and resulted in sluggish growth in secondary lead supply. Overall, the supply side exhibited a pattern of "recovery, albeit limited"—failing to generate significant downward pressure on prices, yet also unable to provide support for price appreciation.

Effective March 17, refined secondary lead ingots have been incorporated as a deliverable substitute for lead futures contracts (commencing with the PB2703 contract). Under this policy, the substitute is subject to a discount of 150 RMB/ton relative to the standard deliverable; this measure has exerted a significant influence on lead prices this month, serving as the primary catalyst behind the accelerated downward trend observed over the medium term. In the short term, the expansion of eligible deliverables has shifted the market's pricing logic toward a "primary + secondary" joint pricing model, wherein the "Cheapest-to-Deliver" (CTD) asset dictates the lower bound of lead prices. This dynamic has directly depressed the central price levels for both futures and spot markets, triggering an accelerated decline in prices following March 17. From a medium-to-long-term perspective, the inclusion of secondary lead in the delivery mechanism resolves the issue of hedging mismatches previously faced by secondary lead producers, thereby enhancing industry transparency. Furthermore, the cost structure of secondary lead is expected to provide a more robust floor of support for lead prices, helping to moderate price volatility and mitigate the occurrence of extreme market fluctuations.

Demand Side

Operating rates for lead-acid batteries remained at relatively high levels, supported primarily by replacement demand from existing stock. However, with the approach of the second quarter—traditionally a slack season for consumption—downstream enterprises were limiting their purchasing to opportunistic, needs-based buying, showing no inclination to engage in concentrated inventory building. Consequently, a lack of incremental demand had emerged as the primary constraint on upward price movements.

Inventory Front

The inventory landscape exhibited a trend of "continuous depletion," providing crucial downside support for lead prices and mitigating the extent of any medium-term decline. In March, domestic social inventories of lead ingots gradually drew down; notably, stocks held by primary lead smelters showed a marked downward trend, while holders of physical stock became increasingly reluctant to sell—factors that provided a certain degree of support to spot prices.

Market outlook

Looking ahead to April, the onset of the traditional off-season for consumption will tip the balance toward the demand side, posing a risk that the central price level may drift slightly lower. However, supported by rigid costs, the downside potential for lead prices remains limited; the market is therefore expected to exhibit a volatile yet generally weaker trend.

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