According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, the domestic ship fuel market in East China saw a significant increase in March. As of March 31, the average price of domestic fuel oil at 180CST was 6,587.50 RMB/ton, an increase of 21.43% from 5,425.00 RMB/ton on March 1.

The domestic fuel oil price of 180CST rose sharply in March: The severe fluctuations in the international crude oil market this month are the fundamental driving force behind the rise in marine oil prices. According to SunSirs, as of March 31, the self pickup low sulfur quotation for 180cst fuel oil in Dalian area of China National Fuel Oil Corporation is 6,700 RMB/ton, and the self pickup low sulfur quotation for 120cst fuel oil is 6,800 RMB/ton; The self extracted low sulfur quotation for 180cst fuel oil in the Shanghai area of China National Fuel Oil Corporation is 6,700 RMB/ton, and the self extracted low sulfur quotation for 120cst fuel oil is 6,800 RMB/ton.

The international crude oil market surged in March, showing the core characteristics of "unilateral surge driven by geopolitical factors and high volatility at the end of the month" throughout the month, WTI and Brent crude oil prices have both hit a new stage high, with a cumulative increase of over 40% for the whole month. The core logic of the market is completely dominated by the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East: at the beginning of the month, the situation in the Middle East suddenly escalated, and the throughput of the Strait of Hormuz plummeted to below 5% of normal levels. Gulf oil producing countries such as Iraq and Kuwait were forced to significantly reduce production due to export obstacles and full capacity of storage facilities; At the same time, oil tankers were forced to detour around the Cape of Good Hope, leading to a 250% -500% increase in shipping costs and a significant surge in insurance, further pushing up the cost of crude oil arriving at the port. Coupled with the market's panic over supply disruptions, crude oil prices have risen; In the latter half of the year, with the expected easing of geopolitical conflicts, the resumption of exports by some oil producing countries, and the release of strategic oil reserves by the United States, negative factors emerged, causing oil prices to fall from historical highs and enter a high volatility range at the end of the month.

In terms of international fuel oil, the Singapore Enterprise Development Board (ESG) reported that as of the week ending March 25th, Singapore's inventory increased by 471,000 barrels, reaching a 10 week high of 24.509 million barrels; Singapore's light distillate oil inventory rose by 504,000 barrels, reaching a two-week high of 18.438 million barrels; Singapore's intermediate distillate oil inventory rose by 1.227 million barrels, reaching a 6-week high of 9.099 million barrels.

Currently, the international crude oil market is rising, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the domestic ship fuel market; The demand for terminal shipping is weak and stable, the market demand for transportation is average, and the sentiment of ship owners to replenish oil is not good. Ship owners mainly need to replenish oil urgently. At present, the self extracted low sulfur quotation for 180cst fuel oil is 6,300-6,800 RMB/ton, and the self extracted low sulfur quotation for 120cst fuel oil is 6,400-6,900 RMB/ton. The geopolitical conflict has not completely eased, and the risk of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz has not been completely eliminated. The geopolitical premium is difficult to quickly dissipate, and it is expected that the fuel oil 180CST market will fluctuate in the high range in April.

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