According to monitoring data from SunSirs, the average price of rapeseed oil spot market on March 1st was 9,884 RMB/ton, and on March 30th it was 10,304 RMB/ton, an increase of 4.25%.

The high cost of imported rapeseed, coupled with strong shipping costs, directly raises the production cost of domestic rapeseed oil, becoming the key to the launch of this round of market trend.

The domestic market is currently experiencing a shortage of rapeseed, and the new season of rapeseed has not yet been launched. The overall inventory of rapeseed oil in oil factories is low, and spot circulation is tight, which provides significant support for prices. The continuous rainy weather in the main production areas has raised concerns in the market about the growth and later yield of rapeseed, further boosting bullish sentiment.

The overall downstream demand is weak, with no concentrated holiday driving in March. Catering and food processing mainly rely on small orders for essential needs, and high prices suppress the willingness to purchase goods, resulting in weak spot transactions. The price of rapeseed oil is higher than that of soybean oil and palm oil, which significantly squeezes the demand for substitutes and further weakens the upward momentum.

Mid to long term expectations are bearish: the global rapeseed production pattern is confirmed, and Canadian rapeseed will be concentrated in ports in the later stage, gradually increasing supply pressure.

In the short term, it is expected that rapeseed oil will fluctuate at a high level and tend to be strong.

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