Price trend

According to the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, as of March 27, the average price in the domestic hot rolled coil market stood at 3,346 RMB/ton, representing a week-on-week increase of 0.813%; meanwhile, the average price in the domestic cold rolled sheet market was 3,800 RMB/ton, remaining relatively stable compared to the previous week. As of March 27, the price spread between cold rolled and hot rolled products was approximately 454 RMB/ton.

Market analysis

Supply, Demand, and Transactions: Driven Primarily by Essential Demand; Inventory Reduction Proceeded Slowly

Supply: Weekly output reached 3.0561 million tons, an increase of 54,000 tons week-on-week; the pace of production resumption at steel mills has accelerated. The profitability rate stood at 43.29%, up 0.87 percentage points week-on-week, indicating strong production willingness. Demand: Apparent demand totaled 3.1363 million tons, an increase of 31,200 tons week-on-week, but down 25.06% year-on-year. Downstream Sectors: Rigid demand from the automotive, machinery, and home appliance industries remains stable, though there has been no concentrated restocking activity. Transactions: Average daily transaction volume was 13,906 tons—up 6.3% week-on-week but down 13.6% year-on-year—with small-lot orders predominating. Inventory: Total inventory amounted to 4.5327 million tons—down 80,200 tons week-on-week but up 57.31% year-on-year. Both mill inventories and social inventories declined; however, the pace of destocking remained relatively slow, and pressure from high inventory levels persisted.

Costs and Support: Raw material prices were firm, with support at the bottom

Iron Ore: PB Fines at Qingdao Port ranged from 780 to 787 RMB/wet ton, trading within a high-level volatile range.

Coke/Coking Coal: Prices remained stable with an upward bias; coking coal supply was tight, leading to rising costs for steel mills.

Cost Support: The cost line for hot rolled coils stood at 3,150–3,200 RMB/ton, suggesting limited downside potential for spot prices.

Market outlook

Price: Expected to fluctuate within the 3,250–3,350 RMB/ton range; the probability of significant price swings (sharp rises or falls) remains low.

Drivers: Cost support provides a floor for prices, while demand is showing a gradual recovery; inventory pressure is progressively easing.

Strategy: Replenish inventory strictly based on immediate, essential needs; closely monitor steel mill price adjustments, hot-rolled coil futures, and changes in downstream production schedules.

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