Price Trends

According to monitoring by the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, the market for 1# tin ingots in the East China region recorded three consecutive days of gains last week (March 23–27). The average market price stood at 341,840 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week; by March 27, the average price had risen to 354,170 RMB/ton, marking an increase of 10.56%.

Market Analysis

Last week, the domestic tin market executed a "V-shaped reversal"—characterized by a sharp plunge followed by a bottoming-out and a sustained rebound. This turnaround was driven by the confluence of several factors: a correction of previous overselling, support from low inventory levels, marginal improvements in raw material supplies, restocking driven by essential downstream demand, and a warming of macroeconomic sentiment. Consequently, market dynamics shifted from a state of panic-driven freefall to a phase of volatile yet upward-trending recovery.

Raw Material Costs:

At the mining end, conditions have eased marginally; processing fees have rebounded, and cost support levels have shifted upward. Mining operations in Myanmar's Wa State are progressing, with production gradually resuming in late March; exports to China have recovered on a month-over-month basis, though transportation and shipment speeds remain relatively slow. Regarding Indonesia's tin ore and refined tin quotas for 2026, supply is expected to be ample. Domestically, the resumption of mining operations in Yunnan and Guangxi provinces has been sluggish, resulting in only limited growth in output.

Supply Side

Smelting operations were resuming slowly, resulting in an overall tight supply situation—particularly among refineries in Yunnan, which did not restart production until late March. Operating rates currently hover between 50% and 60%, leading to a sluggish release of output. SHFE tin inventories stand at a mere 2,130 tonnes (a three-year low), while LME tin inventories total 8,720 tonnes; consequently, global visible inventories remain at low levels. Physical market circulation is tight, with limited availability of low-priced material, and holders demonstrate a strong inclination to support prices.

Demand Side

For traditional electronics (solder), March marks a seasonal lull; the semiconductor and PCB sectors are undergoing inventory reduction, characterized by procurement driven solely by essential needs, small-batch orders, and just-in-time purchasing. In the photovoltaic and new energy sectors, demand for PV solder ribbons remains stable, emerging as a key bright spot. Regarding AI computing power, while the long-term outlook remains positive, these benefits have yet to materialize in the short term.

Market outlook

In the short term, tin prices are expected to remain range-bound with a bullish bias; downside potential is limited, while upside faces resistance. Key factors to monitor include macroeconomic sentiment and fluctuations in the U.S. dollar, as well as ore shipments from Myanmar and domestic smelter operating rates.

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