Price trend
According to SunSirs' Commodity Market Analysis System, from March 20 to March 27, domestic BDO prices rose from 7,900 RMB/ton to 8,157 RMB/ton. During this period, prices increased by 3.25%, representing a month-on-month rise of 10.66% and a year-on-year increase of 3.25%. Currently, BDO supply is relatively moderate, while cost-side pressures are mounting, continuously driving up成交 prices in auctions. Concurrently, downstream demand has seen an uptick; bolstered by a confluence of positive factors, suppliers have adopted tighter pricing policies for the new month to support market stability. With downstream contract orders following through, the domestic BDO market continues its volatile upward trend.
Market analysis
Regarding the supply side—specifically plant operations—conditions have been subject to considerable fluctuation. Manufacturers holding inventory have shown reluctance to sell at lower prices, driving up成交 prices in online auctions. Market supply remains at a relatively low level, and supportive factors on the supply side continue to provide a bullish underpinning. The BDO supply landscape is currently influenced by predominantly bullish factors.
Statistics on the operational status of selected production facilities:
|
region |
Device dynamics |
|
Inner Mongolia Junzheng |
It was overhauled on March 3 and is expected to restart near the 20th |
|
Xinjiang Meike |
The third phase of the plant was stopped, and the first, second, fourth and fifth phases are running steadily |
|
Inner Mongolia Sanwei |
300,000 tons/year BDO plant, the current load is around 7-8% |
|
Xinjiang Guotai Junhua |
The burner was replaced on March 25, and it is expected to take 10 days |
|
Xinjiang S |
Stable operation, tentatively planned for maintenance on May 4 for 15 days |
|
Sichuan Wanhua |
The dose was changed on March 16, and it is expected to take 15 days |
|
Ningxia is far away |
On March 9, it was overhauled for a month |
Regarding the cost side, the calcium carbide market continues its upward trend, with manufacturers experiencing smooth product shipments; consequently, driven by the rise in calcium carbide prices, corporate profitability has seen significant improvement. The methanol market also maintains its upward trajectory, bolstered by factors such as steady demand-driven inquiries and procurement from downstream olefin facilities, as well as positive expectations regarding the restart of MTO units in East China. Overall market sentiment remains optimistic; with key raw materials—calcium carbide and methanol—trading firmly, the BDO industry continues to face cost-side pressure, albeit with the cost landscape currently leaning toward favorable influences.
On the demand side—specifically within downstream sectors—multiple industries have tracked the upward trend of raw materials; however, their price increases have lagged behind those of their inputs, resulting in mounting cost-side pressure. Hindered by inefficient cost pass-through, downstream industries have seen follow-through on contract orders, yet the actual execution of spot market transactions remains limited. Nevertheless, a small volume of urgent, essential orders are being negotiated at relatively high price levels, thereby driving the market's overall price center upward. Consequently, the demand outlook for BDO is currently influenced by bullish factors.
Market Outlook
As the volume of available supply increases, support from the supply side has weakened slightly. Downstream sectors also anticipate a contraction in demand, leading to a widening gap between supply and demand. Furthermore, the inefficient transmission of costs throughout the industrial chain is dampening enthusiasm for production among downstream end-users, thereby fostering a sentiment of seeking price concessions on raw materials. Analysts at SunSirs specializing in BDO anticipate that the domestic BDO market will primarily undergo a period of consolidation following its recent upward trend.
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