In March 2026, a new wave of price hikes swept across the domestic cement market. The Northeast led the surge, followed by many regions in North China, Northwest China, and East China, with the Pearl River Delta market close behind. Major companies such as China Resources and Taiwan Cement successively raised prices for cement and clinker, sparking a renewed rush for pickups at production sites. However, chaotic regional competition and shifts in the logistics landscape mean this round of price adjustments carries the risk of temporary volatility.

Since the start of spring, Northeast China has served as a bellwether for the recovery of the cement market. As of March 15, some regions had completed three rounds of price adjustments, with cumulative increases reaching RMB100 per ton. Companies such as Jilin Yatai Building Materials and Jinmao Jidong Cement implemented their price hikes smoothly, prompting leading enterprises in North China and Northwest China to follow suit. The five provinces of East China responded collectively, and some grinding plants that had suspended operations resumed production urgently. Fujian and the Pearl River Delta region have successively issued price adjustment notices. Mainstream brands in Fujian will increase prices by RMB10 per ton starting March 25, with an expected further increase of RMB20 per ton next month, while companies such as China Resources have directly raised prices by RMB30 per ton.

However, behind this wave of price hikes, underlying market concerns have emerged, with the Pearl River Delta becoming the epicenter of volatility. On one hand, non-compliant competition among regional enterprises is rampant; some companies pressure peers to raise prices while secretly lowering their own, disrupting market order and undermining the stability of price adjustments. On the other hand, the Daxingxia Ship Lock in Guangxi resumed navigation on March 20. As a key hub on the Xijiang River’s “golden waterway,” its reopening will significantly reduce transportation costs, giving the 20–25 million tons of cement Guangxi exports to Guangdong annually a greater price advantage. This will further intensify competition in the Pearl River Delta market and introduce uncertainty regarding the implementation of price adjustments.

Despite short-term fluctuations, the overall trend of a modest upward trajectory for the cement market in 2026 is clear, supported by dual core drivers: costs and demand. On the cost side, coal prices have entered a five-year upward cycle, with a slow but steady rise expected in 2026. This is compounded by three consecutive increases in international crude oil prices following the Spring Festival, with domestic crude oil futures surging by 76.9%, driving up cement production and transportation costs and strengthening companies’ willingness to adjust prices; On the demand side, infrastructure and real estate projects have accelerated their resumption of work since the start of spring. Cement output in January–February grew by 6.8% year-on-year. Following the peak-shifted production period, the national clinker inventory utilization rate has dropped below 50%, indicating moderate inventory pressure, while marginal improvements in demand continue to gain momentum.

For traders, it is essential to seize key timing points to position their strategies and mitigate risks associated with short-term volatility. Three key milestones warrant attention: the conclusion of peak-shifted production in the north, inventory drawdown in South China, and the implementation of cost pass-through. The probability of price adjustments taking effect in Northeast, North, Northwest, and East China stands at 88%, 82%, 78%, and 75%, respectively, making these regions priority targets for positioning; in the Pearl River Delta, the probability is approximately 50%, so traders should position on dips while managing inventory levels. Concurrently, adopting a “long-term contract + dynamic price adjustment” strategy is recommended to align with suppliers and flexibly adjust inventory.

It is important to note that the industry’s overcapacity rate remains above 30%, and the fundamental supply-demand imbalance has not been resolved, meaning short-term price fluctuations will persist. Traders must avoid the mindset of chasing rallies and panicking at dips, closely monitor regional competitive dynamics, and accurately identify optimal timing for market entry to capitalize on the benefits of the industry’s recovery.

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