According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs of China, the import volume of fuel oil in China reached 1.7689 million tons in January 2026, with a significant increase in supply and downward pressure on spot prices. The increase in import volume may alleviate domestic supply shortages and suppress the upward trend of spot prices. The import amount of 4,776.808 million RMB is equivalent to an average price of about 2,700 RMB/ton, which is lower than the current market level (such as the recent closing price of FU2605 futures contract at 4,590 RMB/ton), indicating lower import costs and may further drag down spot prices. Based on futures market data, the price of major contracts such as FU2605 has dropped by 292 RMB recently, resulting in a decrease in holdings and a strengthening of bearish sentiment in the market, which has a negative impact on futures prices. It is expected that short-term prices will come under pressure.

According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs of China, the export volume of fuel oil in February 2026 was 1.229 million tons, with an export value of 4.128049 billion RMB; In January and February, the cumulative export volume of fuel oil in China reached 2.7515 million tons, with an export value of 9,152,092 million RMB. An increase in exports indicates sufficient domestic supply or relatively weak demand, which may be negative for spot prices as export growth implies an increase in domestic inventory pressure. Combined with the futures market, the main contract for fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, such as 2606, closed at 4,472 RMB/ton (down 273 RMB), with a decrease in holdings of 4,897 lots, indicating a strengthening of bearish sentiment in the market. It is expected that futures prices will face short-term downward pressure.

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