In March 2026, the domestic butadiene rubber market emerged from a wide range of independent fluctuations and significant surges, breaking the previous consolidation pattern. The price center of gravity shifted significantly during the month, mainly driven by the strong pull of the cost side and the expectation of tight supply. Downstream demand follow-up was cautious, showing an overall operating characteristic of "cost bottoming out, supply reluctance to sell, and rigid demand follow-up".

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of March 24th, the market price of BR in East China was 17,420 RMB/ton, an increase of 33.90% from 13,010 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month. Enterprises have significantly increased their supply prices one after another, and market merchants' offers have followed suit.

The turbulent geopolitical situation in the Middle East has led to a rise in international crude oil prices, with tight supply of butadiene and a significant increase in prices, supported by the strong cost of BR. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of March 24th, the price of butadiene was 16,766 RMB/ton, an increase of 67.78% from 9,993 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month.

The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has led to a rise in international crude oil prices, causing a tight supply of butadiene and a significant increase in prices. As a result, BR production enterprises have suffered deep losses and are forced to engage in load reduction and shutdown operations. The overall capacity utilization rate of the industry has significantly declined, and some companies still plan to conduct centralized maintenance in April.

Supply and demand side: Since March, downstream tire production has gradually increased, providing essential support for the BR market. As of March 19th, the construction of semi steel tires by domestic tire companies has reached around 78%; The construction of all steel tires by tire enterprises in Shandong region has reached about 70%.

Overall, in the short term, the market for BR is expected to maintain a pattern of high volatility and strong strength. The core support is still the high cost of butadiene and the supply tightening pressure brought by equipment maintenance. If the geopolitical situation continues to be tense, it is difficult for raw material prices to have a significant decline; But high prices will further suppress downstream demand, and weak transactions will constrain upward potential, with prices likely to fluctuate at high levels.

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