In March 2026, the domestic DOP market exhibited a pattern of intense volatility characterized by a sequence of "rapid surges—spikes followed by pullbacks—and subsequent stabilization and recovery." The overall price increase was significant, driven primarily by strong upward pressure from the cost side; coupled with the combined influence of supply-demand dynamics and external factors, the magnitude of market fluctuation exceeded expectations. Consequently, the industry presented a unique scenario marked by "sharply rising prices alongside divergent trading activity."
March Sees Wild "Rollercoaster" Market for Plasticizer DOP
According to SunSirs' Commodity Market Analysis System, driven by the ripple effects of surging crude oil prices—triggered by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East—the prices of DOP's core raw materials, isooctanol and phthalic anhydride, skyrocketed. This surge propelled a significant rise in DOP prices; throughout March, DOP prices trended upward from 7,701 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month, reaching 9,875.83 RMB/ton by March 23—a cumulative monthly increase of 28.24%. In the middle of the month, following the International Energy Agency's release of strategic petroleum reserves and a slight correction in certain raw material prices, DOP prices retreated from their peak. After touching a short-term high of 9,901 RMB/ton on March 10, prices pulled back and subsequently entered a phase of volatile consolidation. The latter part of the month marked a period of stabilization and recovery; with raw material prices firming up once again—coupled with proactive price-support measures taken by some manufacturers—DOP prices gradually rebounded. Overall, the DOP market in March exhibited a trend characterized by a "sharp initial surge, followed by a pullback, and finally, stabilization."
Cost Side: Driven primarily by crude oil pass-through effects, surging raw material prices have emerged as the key driving force
Escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have triggered a surge in international crude oil prices; meanwhile, disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have tightened global oil supplies. As crude oil constitutes the upstream source of the chemical industry chain, its price volatility is being transmitted layer by layer down the chain to the raw material inputs for DOP. This has driven a sharp spike in the prices of isooctanol and phthalic anhydride, establishing a transmission chain characterized by the sequence: "Rising Crude Oil — Rising Raw Materials (Isooctanol & Phthalic Anhydride) — Rising DOP."
Raw Material Market Trends: Isooctanol
According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, prices rose from 6,666.67 RMB/ton at the beginning of March to 9,500 RMB/ton on March 10—a surge of 42.50%. Although a subsequent correction occurred, prices remained at 8,333.33 RMB/ton as of March 13, representing a 25% increase compared to the start of the month. The primary driver behind this trend was the rise in crude oil prices, which triggered a sharp spike in the cost of propylene—a key raw material in the production of isooctanol. Meanwhile, operating rates at isooctanol manufacturing facilities remained at high levels; however, the magnitude of the increase in production costs far outpaced the rise in ex-factory prices, resulting in a situation of "cost inversion" (where production costs exceed selling prices) for some enterprises.
Phthalic Anhydride Market Trends
According to SunSirs' Commodity Market Analysis System, the market for phthalic anhydride witnessed a frenzied surge in March. The price of OX-based phthalic anhydride skyrocketed from 6,150 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month to 10,500 RMB/ton by March 10—a staggering increase of 60%. As of March 13, the price remained elevated at 8,316.67 RMB/ton, representing a 35.24% rise compared to the start of the month. This surge was primarily driven by ripple effects from crude oil markets and a skyrocketing increase in the price of the key raw material, OX. Concurrently, operating rates at some phthalic anhydride manufacturers hovered around 64%, resulting in relatively tight supply conditions that further bolstered the upward trend in prices.
Supply and Demand: Both supply and demand have increased, yet structural imbalances persist, offering limited support from essential demand.
From the supply-side perspective, operating rates among DOP manufacturers rose gradually in March, climbing from a low point at the beginning of the month to settle around 65–66%. As some facilities that had previously suspended operations gradually resumed production, overall market supply exhibited a trend of slow growth. However, with certain plants remaining in a state of prolonged shutdown, the overall pressure of excess supply did not intensify; furthermore, manufacturers demonstrated a strong inclination to hold firm on pricing, thereby providing further support for prices to remain at elevated levels. Regarding inventory, market stocks stood at a moderate level at the start of the month. As DOP prices trended upward, factory inventories did not experience any significant accumulation, and spot supply remained relatively tight—factors that provided a certain degree of support for the rise in DOP prices.
From the demand perspective, operating rates in the core downstream PVC industry remain steady at around 80%; however, order volumes for end-product manufacturers are lackluster. Consequently, the PVC market currently exhibits a pattern characterized by "high operating rates, high inventory levels, and weak demand." Procurement demand for DOP is driven primarily by immediate necessities, with large-volume orders being scarce. Furthermore, demand from other downstream sectors—such as cable compounds and artificial leather—remains lackluster, failing to provide any effective upward momentum for DOP prices. This has resulted in a market dynamic where price trends are "primarily cost-driven, with supply-and-demand factors playing a secondary role." Price increases have not been accompanied by a corresponding surge in transaction volume; instead, a peculiar phenomenon has emerged where sellers are reluctant to part with inventory despite rising prices, while buyers adopt a wait-and-see attitude, resulting in minimal actual trading. Due to the rapid volatility of raw material costs, suppliers are hesitant to issue price quotes readily; conversely, downstream enterprises are wary of blindly stockpiling given the steep price hikes, opting instead to procure only for immediate operational needs. This confluence of factors has led to a market environment characterized by extremely sparse transaction activity.
Market outlook
The DOP market in March exhibited distinct phase-specific shifts: During the first ten days, driven by a surge in crude oil and skyrocketing raw material costs, the market was gripped by a strong sentiment of panic-driven price-following; suppliers held back inventory, while downstream enterprises passively followed suit with their purchasing, propelling prices to soar rapidly. In the middle ten days, as raw material prices underwent a correction and market prices peaked, a wait-and-see sentiment intensified; suppliers became more cautious in their quoting, and downstream enterprises suspended bulk purchasing—limiting their activity to merely restocking for immediate operational needs—causing prices to retreat slightly. During the final ten days, raw material prices firmed up once again, manufacturers' resolve to uphold price levels strengthened, and market confidence gradually recovered; consequently, prices stabilized and began to rebound. However, the wait-and-see sentiment had not yet fully dissipated, and market transactions remained predominantly driven by immediate necessities, with no signs of large-scale speculative stockpiling.
Regarding the near-term market outlook, analysts specializing in plasticizers at SunSirs anticipate that the DOP market will maintain a high-level, volatile yet generally firm trajectory. This trend is primarily underpinned by persistently robust cost-side fundamentals: geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain unabated, international crude oil prices are still expected to rise, and the prices of key raw materials—isooctanol and phthalic anhydride—are projected to remain at elevated levels, thereby providing strong cost support for DOP. Concurrently, manufacturers demonstrate a strong inclination to uphold pricing levels, spot market supplies remain relatively tight, and downstream sectors continue to follow up steadily with essential demand; consequently, there is limited scope for any significant price retracement.
In the long term, market trends are primarily determined by three key factors: costs, supply, and demand. The impact of cost factors stems mainly from geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East. Should tensions continue to escalate, crude oil and raw material prices will persist on an upward trajectory, thereby driving the price center of gravity for DOP higher; conversely, if the situation de-escalates and crude oil prices retreat, DOP prices may undergo a correction. Demand factors hinge primarily on the pace of recovery in downstream sectors; if inventory depletion accelerates in downstream industries—such as PVC—and end-market orders improve, this will provide support for DOP demand and underpin price increases. Conversely, if the recovery in demand falls short of expectations, it will constrain the upside potential for prices. Supply factors are chiefly driven by plant operating rates; should DOP facilities that had previously suspended operations resume production—leading to a substantial surge in market supply—this could trigger a reversal in the supply-demand balance and precipitate a price correction.
Overall, the supply-demand landscape for DOP is unlikely to undergo any fundamental shifts in the near term; consequently, the primary driver of market price fluctuations remains the cost side. From late March through early April, the DOP market is expected to continue trading within a high-level volatile range, with prices most likely hovering between 10,000 and 11,000 RMB/ton. Moving forward, close attention should be paid to trends in crude oil and raw material markets, while remaining vigilant against the risk of price corrections. Downstream enterprises are advised to limit purchasing to immediate operational needs rather than engaging in speculative stockpiling. Meanwhile, traders and manufacturers are encouraged to closely monitor market dynamics, manage inventory levels prudently, and take measures to mitigate risks associated with price volatility..
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