Price Trends

According to data from the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, as of March 24, the average quoted price for premium-grade DMF among domestic manufacturers stood at 5,440 RMB/ton. Currently, the overall DMF market is trending steady-to-firm; following a series of sharp price surges in mid-March, the market has entered a phase of price stabilization and "wait-and-see" this week, characterized by manufacturers holding firm on prices while downstream buyers exercise caution in their procurement.

Market Analysis

Market Overview: The surge in raw material methanol—driving up production costs—has been the primary catalyst for the current round of price hikes. Market fundamentals remain tight, characterized by reduced supply due to maintenance shutdowns and operating rate cuts at various production facilities, as well as historically low inventory levels. Downstream sectors are engaging in replenishment driven by essential demand; however, elevated price levels are curbing speculative purchasing activity. Consequently, the domestic DMF market has recently exhibited a strong upward trend, with mainstream quotations currently ranging between 5,150 and 5,700 RMB/ton—a significant increase compared to the beginning of the year. Influenced by the interplay between supply and demand, the market has transitioned from a period of low-level, narrow-range fluctuation into a phase of sustained rebound. Since late February 2026—when the average price stood at 3,940 RMB/ton—DMF prices have been on a continuous upward trajectory, recording a cumulative increase of over 36%. This latest wave of price appreciation has been primarily driven by producers' efforts to uphold price levels, strong cost-side support, and a short-term surge in export orders.

Supply Side: Domestic total production capacity remains steady at 1.77 million tons per annum (based on 2025 data). The industry's operating rate has long hovered at a low level of around 40%, leaving the situation of severe overcapacity fundamentally unchanged. No new capacity additions are projected for the 2025–2026 period, as most capacity expansion projects have been shelved—a development that has helped alleviate further downward pressure.

Demand Side: Downstream demand is primarily driven by polyurethane slurries (accounting for over 50%), as well as the electronics and pharmaceutical sectors. Domestic demand currently remains sluggish, with downstream players largely adopting a "replenish-as-needed" strategy; however, robust exports have emerged as a key pillar of support—in 2025, export volume grew by 26.10% year-on-year, with major destinations including South Korea, Japan, and India.

Market outlook

According to analysts at SunSirs, the DMF market is expected to remain in a pattern of low-level fluctuation, with limited upside potential; overall, the market is operating in a state of supply-demand equilibrium.

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