Price Trends

According to price monitoring data from SunSirs, prices for rebar and wire rods in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai region last week exhibited a trend of simultaneous growth in both volume and price, characterized by fluctuating yet generally firm performance. With the approach of the traditional peak season, the supply-demand landscape was gradually improving, and market sentiment had begun to warm up. As of the 20th, the average price for HRB400 rebar in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai region stood at approximately 3,178 RMB/ton—a week-on-week decline of 0.38%; meanwhile, the average price for HPB300 high-speed wire rods was 3,350 RMB/ton, marking a week-on-week decline of 0.37%.

Market Analysis

Market Overview: Last week, prices for rebar and wire rod exhibited a stable-to-weak trend, fluctuating within a narrow range. In the futures market, the benchmark rebar contract initially rose before retreating; it saw a modest uptick early in the week, bolstered by strength in raw material markets, but subsequently came under pressure and declined in the latter half of the week due to sluggish demand recovery and persistent inventory pressures, resulting in a volatile trading pattern throughout the week.

Supply Side: Last week, demand exhibited a seasonal recovery, though absolute levels remained relatively weak. The apparent consumption of rebar reached 2.0809 million tons, an increase of 312,800 tons from the previous week. The rate of work resumption at construction sites continued to rise; as of March 18, the nationwide resumption rate reached 62%, up 19.5 percentage points week-on-week. However, end-users showed limited acceptance of high-priced materials; the average daily trading volume for construction steel materials nationwide stood at approximately 94,400 tons—a 3.2% decline from the previous week—indicating that the increase in trading volume fell short of expectations.

Regarding inventory: Last week marked a critical turning point in stock levels. Total rebar inventory stood at 8.8941 million tons—a week-on-week decline of 0.53%—marking the first instance of inventory drawdown since the Spring Festival. Specifically, social inventory totaled 6.5321 million tons and mill inventory 2.362 million tons, representing week-on-week decreases of 13,400 tons and 34,200 tons, respectively. However, it should be noted that absolute inventory levels remain at historically high levels for this time of year; consequently, the pressure to reduce inventory persists.

On the demand side, demand exhibited a seasonal recovery last week, though absolute levels remained relatively weak. Apparent consumption of rebar totaled 2.0809 million tons, an increase of 312,800 tons from the previous week. The rate of work resumption at construction sites continued to rise; as of March 18, the nationwide resumption rate reached 62%, up 19.5 percentage points week-on-week. However, end-users demonstrated low acceptance of high-priced materials; the average daily trading volume for construction materials nationwide stood at approximately 94,400 tons—a 3.2% decline from the previous week—indicating that the volume of transactions fell short of expectations.

Market outlook

In summary, analysts at SunSirs anticipate that the construction steel market will continue its pattern of high-level volatility and directional uncertainty. The core logic underpinning this outlook lies in the ongoing tug-of-war between "cost support" and a "weak reality." Amidst this interplay of bullish and bearish factors, rebar prices currently lack the momentum for a unilateral breakout in the short term. While cost-side support remains solid, the upside potential is limited; meanwhile, fundamental pressures have eased marginally, though the absolute level of market fundamentals remains relatively weak. Consequently, rebar prices are expected to maintain a narrow range of fluctuation over the coming week, with the price center of gravity potentially shifting slightly downward.

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