As we enter late March, calls for price increases in the packaging paper industry continue to intensify. Leading paper manufacturers have been issuing price increase notices for April in rapid succession, covering multiple product categories such as corrugated paper and white cardboard. The trend of price increases is continuing and remains firmly supported. The paper industry is currently at a critical stage where profit recovery and industrial upgrading are advancing simultaneously; market conditions are gradually improving, and the industry’s ability to recover profits continues to strengthen.

I. Key Manifestations of Price Increases: Frequent Price Hikes by Paper Companies Across Multiple Categories

Since March, paper companies have frequently raised prices, with clear plans for April covering mainstream paper categories. Specific manifestations are as follows:

- Multiple Consecutive Price Hikes: Following two rounds of price increases in early and mid-March, some leading paper manufacturers have issued further price increase notices, confirming continued price hikes in April with a single-round increase of up to 50 yuan per ton;

- Broad Category Coverage: In addition to packaging paper, several white cardboard manufacturers have simultaneously announced price increases, with white cardboard prices rising by 200 yuan per ton effective April 1;

- Downstream sector follows suit: Downstream corrugated board manufacturers have adjusted their pricing in line with upstream increases, creating a coordinated price hike across the supply chain and further solidifying expectations of rising prices.

II. Core Reasons for Price Increases: Cost Pressures + Supply-Demand Support, Multiple Factors Converging

The core logic behind the paper manufacturers’密集 price hikes lies in the transmission of cost pressures and support from supply-demand dynamics, which can be broken down into three key points:

- Cost-driven factors: Influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, energy prices have skyrocketed, driving significant increases in related chemical product prices. Additionally, heightened risks to supply stability have caused paper manufacturers’ operating costs to rise continuously, becoming the primary driver of price hikes;

- Supply and demand support: Following the Spring Festival, the resumption of work and production in downstream sectors has led to the continued release of essential demand, alleviating supply-demand imbalances and providing a foundational support for rising paper prices;

- Raw Material and Inventory Support: Prices for waste paper, a key raw material, have recently rebounded slightly, and overall inventory pressure in the industry remains manageable. This further ensures the feasibility of price hikes for paper manufacturers and boosts market optimism.

III. Market Support by Product Category: “Waste Paper-Based” and “Pulp and Paper-Based” Segments Each Have Their Own Support

Price increases across different paper categories are backed by clear underlying logic, presenting a differentiated yet simultaneously positive trend:

- Waste Paper Category (Corrugated Paper, Containerboard): Post-Spring Festival, supply-demand imbalances have eased, and sharp fluctuations in costs have provided support. By early March, mainstream corrugated paper prices had already begun to trend upward; price hikes by leading paper manufacturers in April further boosted market sentiment. Rising waste paper prices and manageable inventory levels continue to support upward price movements;

- Pulp and Paper Segment (White Cardboard): Since the beginning of 2026, overseas pulp producers have continuously raised their export prices. Due to the shipping cycle, the impact of these price hikes has gradually trickled down to the domestic market. In March, domestic hardwood pulp spot prices stabilized and rose slightly, providing temporary cost support for white cardboard price increases. Currently, the industry is in a critical phase of weekly price negotiations among pulp and paper companies, and the cost-supporting effects are expected to become more pronounced in the second quarter.

IV. Industry Impact: Profit Recovery + Industrial Upgrading, Continued Optimization of the Market Landscape

Frequent price hikes by paper manufacturers are driving industry-wide profit recovery, while accelerated industrial upgrading continues to enhance the quality of industry development:

- Profit Recovery is Evident: Leading paper manufacturers are achieving profit growth through cost advantages, and the industry’s overall capacity for profit recovery continues to strengthen, with business sentiment gradually improving;

- Leading Companies’ Advantages Are Evident: Top-tier enterprises with independent raw material supply systems can effectively hedge against raw material price volatility risks while driving product upgrades toward high-end and differentiated offerings, further expanding their market advantages;

- Policy-Driven Upgrades: Local policies actively support the development of high-end and specialty paper projects, driving the industry toward high-end and specialized upgrades while optimizing the competitive landscape;

- Short-Term Wait-and-See Sentiment: While international pulp mills intend to continue raising export prices, domestic paper manufacturers have seen only limited improvement in processing margins and have low acceptance of high-priced raw materials, leaving the market in a wait-and-see mode for now.

V. Summary and Outlook

The rationale for price increases in the current paper industry is clear: cost pressures being passed on, strong downstream demand, and secure raw material and inventory supplies have collectively driven paper manufacturers to issue a flurry of price increase notices for April, signaling a clear trend toward profit recovery in the industry. Leading companies, leveraging their cost and scale advantages, are taking a dominant position in the industry’s upgrade, while local policies further empower high-quality industrial development.

In the short term, as the price hikes announced by paper manufacturers in April take effect, coupled with the continued release of downstream demand, paper prices are expected to maintain an upward trend, and the industry’s profit recovery will continue to advance. In the medium to long term, key attention should be paid to fluctuations in raw material prices, the outcomes of pulp price negotiations, the strength of downstream demand absorption, and the progress of industrial upgrading. These factors will determine the sustainability of the industry’s profit recovery and the pace of optimization in the industry landscape.

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