Price trend
According to SunSirs' Commodity Market Analysis System, from March 16 to March 20, domestic BDO prices rose from 7,757 RMB/ton to 7,900 RMB/ton. During this period, prices increased by 1.84%, representing a month-on-month rise of 7.17%, while remaining stable year-on-year. Domestic BDO production facilities experienced significant fluctuations, resulting in a continued contraction of supply. Upstream raw material prices trended upward, and auction prices were consistently driven higher; with the convergence of multiple bullish factors, suppliers demonstrated a strong resolve to support market prices. Furthermore, follow-through on downstream contract orders helped drive the market's price center upward.
Market analysis
Regarding the supply—specifically concerning production facilities—various factors such as restarts and catalyst replacements are currently in play. Weekly output continues to contract, thereby strengthening the bullish support originating from the supply side. Specifically, Weiyuan is undergoing maintenance for one month starting from March 9; Xinjiang Shuguang Lvhua will undergo maintenance for one month in late March; and Guotai Xinhua is scheduled for a 10-day maintenance period beginning March 25. These factors provide underlying support to the supply side, sustaining the suppliers' firm stance on market pricing. Overall, the BDO supply landscape is currently influenced by predominantly bullish factors.
Statistics on the operational status of selected production facilities:
|
region |
Device dynamics |
|
Inner Mongolia Junzheng |
It was overhauled on March 3 and is expected to restart near the 20th |
|
Xinjiang Meike |
The third phase of the plant was stopped, and the first, second, fourth and fifth phases are running steadily |
|
Inner Mongolia Sanwei |
300,000 tons/year BDO plant, the current load is around 70-80% |
|
Xinjiang Guotai Xinhua |
Stable operation, replace the burner on March 25, expected to be 10 days |
|
Xinjiang Xinye |
The first phase of the 60,000-ton plant and the second phase of the 70,000+70,000 tons/year plant are running stably |
|
Ningxia Wuheng Chemical |
The load of the device is 60-70% |
|
Ningxia Weiyuan |
On March 9, it is overhauled for a month |
Regarding costs, influenced by regional conflicts and shifts in internal supply-demand dynamics, the prices of key raw materials—including calcium carbide, methanol, natural gas, and maleic anhydride—have risen, thereby intensifying cost-side pressures within the BDO industry. Concurrently, the volume of auctions increased throughout the week, with many transactions settling at elevated price levels, thereby bolstering suppliers' resolve to maintain firm market pricing. With raw materials such as calcium carbide and methanol exhibiting strong yet volatile trends, the BDO industry continues to face cost-side pressures; nevertheless, cost-related factors are currently exerting a generally bullish influence on the BDO market.
On the demand side, operating rates across downstream industries have generally increased, leading to higher consumption of raw materials. Consequently, near-term supply-demand pressures remain manageable, and suppliers continue to maintain a firm stance on pricing. Overall, the demand outlook for BDO is currently influenced by bullish factors.
Market outlook
Support from positive fundamentals remains intact, and market participants maintain a positive outlook regarding procurement and sales; consequently, expectations persist for the market to continue trending upward. Analysts at SunSirs forecast that the domestic BDO market will primarily exhibit strong, fluctuating trends.
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