Price trend

Recently, the acrylic acid market has exhibited a pulse-like pattern of fluctuation—initially surging, then retreating, and finally stabilizing—with prices oscillating around the 12,750 RMB/ton mark. According to data from SunSirs, the benchmark price for premium-grade acrylic acid in East China stood at 12,750 RMB/ton on March 11. From the beginning of the week through March 12, prices rose rapidly to a cyclical high of 13,076 RMB/ton, marking an increase of 2.56%. On March 15, prices retreated just as quickly to 12,750 RMB/ton, erasing all of the gains made during this period. From March 16 to March 18, prices stabilized—holding steady at the same level as the start of the previous week—thereby maintaining an overall trend of range-bound consolidation.

Market analysis

Cost Side:

Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East continue to disrupt energy supply chains and remain the primary influencing factor on the cost side. International crude oil and propane prices are fluctuating at elevated levels, thereby providing firm support to the raw material costs for propylene. However, as market sentiment gradually cools, propylene prices have retreated slightly from their recent peaks; consequently, the upward pressure exerted by raw materials on acrylic acid prices has somewhat diminished. The nature of cost support has shifted from being a "strong driver" to serving as a "baseline floor," thereby creating room for prices to trend downward.

Supply and Demand:

1. Supply Side: The overall operating rate of the industry remains stable, and spot supply is ample, with no significant supply gaps emerging. The tightening of spot market circulation—previously triggered by panic-buying and stockpiling—is gradually easing, and the pace of corporate shipments has returned to a steady state.

2. Demand Side: Downstream sectors—such as coatings, adhesives, and water-reducing agents—are currently driven primarily by essential procurement needs. These industries demonstrate limited tolerance for high prices exceeding 13,000 RMB/ton. Following a period of concentrated stockpiling, demand has entered a digestion phase; lacking support from incremental demand, both buyers and sellers have reached a stalemate, thereby constraining the potential for further price appreciation.

Sentiment:

At the beginning of the week, the market was influenced by geopolitical conflicts and cost pass-through effects; speculative sentiment and inventory-stockpiling behaviors drove prices to spike. However, as tensions eased marginally and raw material prices underwent a correction, market panic subsided. Trading activity returned to rationality, with negotiations for actual orders placing greater emphasis on alignment with fundamental market conditions, resulting in a narrowing of price fluctuation ranges.

Market Outlook:

In the short term, the interplay between supply and demand will continue to dominate the acrylic acid market. Prices are highly likely to maintain a pattern of narrow, sideways consolidation, with the core fluctuation range centering around 12,500–13,000 RMB/ton. Particular attention should be paid to three key variables:

1. Prices for the upstream raw material, propylene, are fluctuating; should raw material prices continue to weaken, this would further erode cost support for acrylic acid, potentially triggering a slight downward correction in prices.

2. Changes in operating rates and purchasing patterns within downstream industries—should genuine demand remain persistently weak, this could exacerbate the risk of price volatility and a downward trend.

3. Geopolitical developments in the Middle East: Should the situation undergo new changes, it could reignite market sentiment and drive volatility in both cost structures and prices.

From a medium-to-long-term perspective, the industry should closely monitor the pace of new capacity additions in the second quarter, as well as adjustments to plant operating rates. Should supply pressures gradually ease, the supply-demand landscape may achieve a new equilibrium, causing price trends to align more closely with changes in market fundamentals.

SunSirs has been continuously tracking price data for over 200 commodities for nearly 20 years, please contact support@sunsirs.com for subscription.