Price trend
According to price monitoring data from SunSirs, prices for rebar and wire rods in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai region last week exhibited a trend of simultaneous growth in both volume and price, characterized by upward-leaning volatility. As the traditional peak season approached, the supply-demand landscape was gradually improving, and market sentiment had begun to warm up. As of the 13th, the average price for HRB400 rebar in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai region stood at approximately 3,190 RMB/ton—a week-on-week increase of 1.07%; meanwhile, the average price for HPB300 high-speed wire rods reached 3,362.5 RMB/ton, up 1.05% from the previous week.
Market analysis
Market Overview: Last week, prices for rebar and wire rod experienced a broad-based rally. As of March 13, the average price for 20mm Grade 3 seismic-resistant rebar across major cities nationwide stood between 3,337 and 3,339 RMB/ton—a week-on-week increase of 39 RMB/ton, or 1.03%. In terms of regional performance, markets in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Jinan, Beijing, Xi'an, and other cities generally saw price increases ranging from 10 to 30 RMB/ton. According to data from SunSirs, the benchmark price for rebar on March 13 was 3,180.50 RMB/ton. Futures Market: Volatile Uptrend; Discount Narrows. Regarding futures, the main rebar contract (2605) traded with a volatile yet bullish bias throughout the week. As of the midday close on March 13, the main rebar futures contract settled at 3,144 RMB/ton—up 0.64% from the previous trading day. This represents a discount of approximately 95 RMB/ton relative to the Shanghai spot price, marking a narrowing of the discount margin by 3 points compared to the week prior. Open interest stood at 1.6268 million lots, indicating a high level of market participation.
Supply Side: Last week, the supply side for rebar exhibited a distinct trend of recovery. Data indicates that actual rebar output last week totaled 1.953 million tons—a week-on-week increase of 219,900 tons, or 12.7%. Capacity utilization stood at 42.81%, up 4.82 percentage points from the previous week. The increase in production was concentrated primarily in the East and South China regions, with Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Hubei recording the most significant gains; the key driver behind this surge was the concentrated resumption of rebar production lines at various steel mills following the holiday period. Regarding short-process production, the pace of electric arc furnace (EAF) restarts accelerated markedly; capacity utilization among 94 independent EAF steel mills reached 50.44%, a substantial week-on-week increase of 29.73 percentage points. In terms of aggregate volume, the combined output of the five major steel product categories reached 8.2097 million tons this week—a week-on-week increase of 237,300 tons, or 3%.
Regarding inventory: Inventory continued to accumulate last week, though the rate of increase slowed significantly. Total rebar inventory stood at 8.9417 million tons—an increase of 184,900 tons (2.1%) from the previous week—which was far below the 750,800-ton increase recorded the week prior. Specifically, social inventory rose by 168,000 tons to approximately 7.8 million tons, while steel mill inventory increased by 16,900 tons to 1.8848 million tons. The total inventory of the five major steel product categories reached 19.7489 million tons, marking a week-on-week increase of 228,900 tons (1.2%); this represents a significant narrowing compared to the 5.7% growth rate observed the week before. The core logic driving this inventory accumulation remains a "shift from mill inventories to social inventories," yet end-user demand is gradually catching up with the pace of production growth.
Demand Side: The demand side was exhibiting a significant trend of recovery. Last week, the apparent consumption of rebar reached 1.7681 million tons—a week-on-week increase of 785,800 tons, representing a substantial growth rate of 79.9%. The daily average trading volume for construction materials has approached 100,000 tons, essentially on par with the full-year average of 101,500 tons recorded in 2025. As of March 11, the resumption rate across 10,692 construction sites nationwide stood at 42.5%, marking a week-on-week increase of 19 percentage points; meanwhile, the rate of secured funding reached 42.8%, up 7.4 percentage points from the previous week. This improvement in demand is primarily driven by the concentrated resumption of infrastructure projects and restocking activities undertaken by traders based on policy expectations, resulting in a relatively active trading atmosphere within the market.
Market Outlook
In summary, analysts at SunSirs anticipate that rebar prices next week will exhibit a volatile yet upward-trending trajectory, with the price center of gravity shifting higher. Driven by the continued release of demand, the approaching inflection point in inventory levels, and strengthening cost support, the market is expected to sustain the upward momentum observed this week. However, it should be noted that the overall improvement in the supply-demand landscape remains limited, and a definitive turning point toward overall inventory reduction has not yet materialized; consequently, the upside potential for prices may face constraints. Prices for the week are projected to trade within a range of 3,300 to 3,400 RMB/ton. Market participants are advised to closely monitor daily trading volumes and inventory fluctuations to capitalize on short-term opportunities.
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